Sheer cricketing logic would dictate that Australia go into the 2015 World Cup final against New Zealand as favourites.
After all, they have the experience of winning the most wanted trophy in the sport four times, and have made it to the final for the seventh time. This is New Zealand’s maiden entry into the title-deciding match.
In the ODI format, the two teams have met 104 times on Australian soil, with the hosts winning 61 matches and losing just 38. In fact, the Aussies have won 24 out of the 26 matches they have played against all opposition at home.
That past may not help Michael Clarke and his men too much, but surely, you cannot ignore the fact that they have the home advantage, they are playing in one of the most unique grounds in the game with some of the longest boundaries, and that their rivals have played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground just once in the last five years.
MCG is also one ground where the ball does not swing much in a day-night match, but does tend to reverse swing later in the innings. That would possibly hand over the bowling advantage to the two Mitchells in the Aussie side – Starc and Johnson – and take away significant bite from Kiwi opening pair of Trent Boult and Tim Southee.
And finally, how would New Zealand handle the 90,000-plus fans, a majority of whom are expected to root for India?
If you just look at the MCG as a venue, the Kiwis have won only four times in 19 visits here.
You’d think all of the above would help Australian captain Michael Clarke sleep better, but it does not. And he explained it in a succinct manner on Saturday: “I believe if we play our best, we can beat New Zealand.
“I don’t buy into the favourites or not favourites. New Zealand have been the form team of the competition. New Zealand have beaten us once in this tournament. But I’m confident if we play our best, we can win on Sunday.”
That really is the key to winning the title – who plays better on the day. This is the last saloon – there is no place for jitters or nerves. The slightest of hesitation shown by any team would be an opportunity for their opponent to pounce upon.
As much as the scale looks tilted in Australia’s favour, let’s not discount the fact that New Zealand are yet to lose a match in this tournament. And one can sense steely determination in the mild-mannered men from across the Tasman Sea.
Australia have always taken great pride in playing aggressive cricket, but New Zealand are like new converts. They have recently started playing aggressive cricket, and they are embracing it with religious fervor. Expect fields of three slips, a gully and a short cover in the 15th over with the bowlers pitching it up to the batsmen, or Vettoti flighting the ball more than spinners would dare in Test matches.
New Zealand may be playing the younger sibling card and all that, but come game time, they will try their utmost to add to the already swell collection of trophies they have and Australia pine for – Rugby World Cup, the Bledisloe Cup and the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy.
From all indication, both teams will be unchanged for the final, even though both the captains refused to acknowledge it the day before.
If you compare the two teams on paper, Australia would have a significant edge. But as a team, New Zealand seem to be the hungrier lot.
