It's not logical how Pakistan reached Champions Trophy semi-finals but they shouldn't be ruled out against England

Hassan Cheema 09:52 14/06/2017
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  • Can Pakistan upset England in their own backyard?

    There’s a certain predictability to sporting numbers, and what’s commonly referred to as “analytics”. Both Father Time and the Law of Averages remain undefeated. Individual moments are part of a bigger picture, not isolated incidents in a vacuum. The best window into future performances are past results.

    Thus consistency becomes paramount. What matters is how often you perform, not when you perform. It all makes sense – it allows sport to be similar to every other discipline.

    And then something like the Champions Trophy happens, and you are reminded that sport is unlike any other discipline.

    The format of the tournament plays a big role, obviously. Had it not been for the English weather, Australia would surely have reached the semi-finals of the tournament. Had it not been for one middle order collapse, the same could be said of South Africa. The former is understandably excused away, the latter becomes part of a trend. The understanding of a narrative thus is built as much upon the past as the present.

    And then there’s Pakistan.

    For the first time in five years Pakistan will be in the semi-final of an ICC tournament. Four captains, three head coaches, three PCB chairmen and countless board changes later Pakistan will rejoin the elite. And they do so perhaps nearest to the lowest ebb their limited overs fortunes have been in. This isn’t the rise of the phoenix from the ashes, this is the last embers of a dying flame. But in the moment all that is secondary. Wins wash away all sins. For Pakistan the narrative is defined by only the present, and nothing else.

    The team itself makes a mockery of narratives, past performances and our understanding of sport. Bangladesh and England both have positive win-loss records against the top 8 since the 2015 World Cup. One has been on a slow rise for the best part of a decade. The by-product of an ever improving system.

    The other is about the maximizing of resources, of shedding your psyche of past baggage and becoming more progressive than any counterpart.

    And while India might not have that good a record over the past two years, their success is not a surprise. They are representative of the pure power of capitalism; of how much can be achieved, and how often, when there is a cycle of constant growth on and off the field.

    And then there’s Pakistan.

    The plaudits went to Sarfraz Ahmed, Fakhar Zaman and Mohammad Amir, yet Pakistan got there thanks principally to two middle overs spells – one by Hasan Ali, another by Junaid Khan. Hasan is new Pakistan – talented, but seen as a downgrade from all that came before him; his great attributes aren’t usually considered Pakistani virtues. Movement off the seam, a refusal to do anything but the max, and the constant desire to improve. Junaid is old Pakistan – supremely talented, hampered by the domestic system and the baggage that comes along with it, increasingly inconsistent, but a hoarder of great moments like no other.

    That’s how Pakistan are still in with a shout for a tournament they were struggling to qualify for. They’ve already beaten two higher ranked teams, and they’ll have to continue to do so – because, well, everyone here is ranked higher than them.

    It is pointless to make sense of what Pakistan have done in this tournament. In a format where bowlers are increasingly redundant they’ve relied overwhelmingly on that aspect of their game. In a format that’s designed to only make stars of batsmen, they’ve succeed with their highest individual score in the tournament being 61. And even that required multiple dropped catches and run out chances missed. Their middle order trio, the spine of a modern ODI side, have scored 151 runs at an average under 20 and a strike rate below 70. Each of the other three semi-finalists have at least one middle order batsman who has scored more than the Pakistani trio have scored altogether. And yet here they are, in the same position as the rest, making a mockery of all that we know about ODI cricket in 2017.

    That’s what makes their semi final against England so fascinating. The England ODI team were in a similar position to Pakistan not so long ago – their batting was years behind the elite, and their understanding of the game was hampered by the quality of the players in the dressing room. What they did have was perhaps the best domestic structure in the world, and a generation coming through that could drag them into the digital age. That they’ve done so in barely two years shows how much of their lack of progress was self inflicted. And how well everything below the national level had been working even in the off years.

    Pakistan don’t have those luxuries. What they get are flawed players who need to be developed at the highest level. Some take to it more quickly than others, but the fear of a flameout is always present. For Fakhar Zaman in 2017, read Umar Akmal in 2009, or Nasir Jamshed in 2012, or Sohaib Maqsood in 2014. The fundamentals developed below the international level have more holes than Swiss cheese. And yet Pakistan keep on moving, constantly looking for something that will work – like modern day Prometheuses, hoping that there’s a Hercules around somewhere who can slay their eagle. Until then they will do what they’ve done through the rest of this tournament – they’ll fight against form, logic and conventional wisdom. And based on the last two results, would you really bet against them continuing to do so?

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