Manuel Pellegrini may not be one for mathematics when it comes to the Champions League but right now the numbers are crystal clear.
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Two last-16 exits during his two years in charge have seemingly superseded the domestic double success of the Chilean’s debut campaign as Manchester City boss.
Their persistent failure in Europe now mean it’s feasible that by the end of this season, Pellegrini could go down as the most successful manager in City’s history – at least in the Premier League era – and still be out of a job.
The insatiable appetite of the Abu Dhabi owners’ to dine with Europe’s elite make it clear that Champions League glory heads the menu this term – not the league crown.
Since gaining admission to Europe’s premier club competition some four years ago, City have repeatedly been found out when it comes to the highest level with Bayern Munich and Barcelona trumping determined performances.
Natural then, is the club’s fancy for Pep Guardiola, English football’s worst kept secret, with club long-term admirers of the former Barca coach.
But their perennial courting of the Spaniard is much more than just results on the pitch. When Pellegrini was installed after Roberto Mancini’s demise, the buzz word was ‘holistic’.
And it’s exactly that approach Guardiola offers. By tempting someone of his stature with his philosophy, City would be
announcing themselves as an elite team.
Even with a new deal for Pellegrini shrewdly signed in the summer the Bayern Munich boss casts a shadow over the Etihad Stadium – his arrival appears inevitable rather than doubtful.
So how can Pellegrini keep his job beyond this season?
The Chilean coach must prove to the City hierarchy that he is the right man long term and that starts with changing their fortunes in Europe, not by winning the league. Of course, the early signs domestically provide much promise.
The hefty investment over the summer in players like Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne and Nicolas Otamendi and their early form allows them to regard a difficult Champions League group that includes Sevilla, Borussia Mochengladbach and Juventus as negotiable.
In fact, arguably this year represents Pellegrini’s best opportunity to go deep in Europe and he simply has to because the progress made there could well be enough to dampen the attraction of beating everyone else for Guardiola.
Before a ball had even been kicked many had written off City for league honours, nevermind, challenge in Europe but so far Pellegrini has proved those doubters wrong.
Now comes the real acid test. If he is to stand any chance of returning for a fourth season at City, he must relax his tactical rigidity.
His favoured 4-4-2 formation is not exactly suited to European football and Pellegrini must demonstrate much more flexibility this time around. His summer signings suggest a dynamic attacking system will be employed, and that must come to fruition.
Reverence has hardly flowed in Pellegrini’s direction and his fate beyond this season may already be sealed. But Europe will be his only saving grace, regardless of what he wins domestically.
