For Iceland, qualification to the European Championship for the first time in their history was a major success; to then advance from the Group Stage took that dream another step further.
Now, though, they are in the Last 16 and the might of England await them on Monday night in Nice. Should they shock their opponents on that stage, Iceland would be well on course to writing one of football’s greatest ever stories.
In #360debate this week, we ask: Can Iceland pull off an upset and defeat England in Nice?
Unity has been key to Iceland’s success at Euro 2016 and it is a quality exemplified by their two coaches. They are the only team at the tournament with a pair of principals, veteran Lars Lagerback sitting in the dugout alongside Heimir Hallgrimsson, who is being groomed to be his solo successor.
The pair work together in harmony and it is reflected in their players. Cristiano Ronaldo belittled Iceland after they held Portugal to a 1-1 draw in their opening game, criticising what he deemed to be a “small mentality” and claiming “they are not going to do anything in the competition”.
But Ronaldo was wrong. Iceland’s ‘small mentality’ was simply a supreme display of defensive discipline, and they have certainly ‘done something’ in France, a last-gasp victory over Austria meaning they finished above Ronaldo and Co in Group F.
Iceland will of course find themselves as underdogs again when they meet England but they have relished the role so far.
They have already kept the tournament’s best individual quiet, Bjarni Arnason with a masterful man-marking job on Ronaldo, and the Three Lions have no player who can match his quality.
Wayne Rooney is perhaps the closest, but if he plays a deeper role as he has in previous games, there’s every chance Arnason – who also excelled against Austria – will be able to execute a similar brief again, denying the Manchester United man time on the ball.
Lars Lagerback: “Yes we practise a little bit penalties. Some were good, some not so good.” #isl
— Henry Winter (@henrywinter) June 26, 2016
Going forward, there was much more attacking ambition to admire from Iceland in the games against Hungary and Austria – though counter-attacking is the key philosophy.
In Gylfi Sigurdsson they have a seasoned Premier League performer who has both the power to create and finish. Jon Dadi Bodvarsson has also been a busy presence up front. Still, their chief strength remains in the defensive collective.
Slovakia gave a useful blueprint of how to keep England quiet and Iceland are certainly capable of repeating it.
Lagerback and Hallgrimsson’s side have only lost once in their last nine competitive games and though a 1-0 win or penalty shootout triumph is the most likely route of progress, there’s every chance the ‘minnows’ tag can be shed for good.
Let’s be blunt: England are a mediocre side who were fortunate in the group they were placed in. Russia and Slovakia were there for the taking and Roy Hodgson’s inability to fashion wins from those games, and top Group B, will likely come back to haunt him at this tournament.
But it won’t happen tonight. Not against Iceland, the weakest team to have reached the last 16.
There is much to admire with what they’ve achieved but, like England, have been flattered by a poor group; Austria the biggest disappointments of this tournament, a limited Hungary while Portugal’s problems are there for all to see.
Although Iceland’s defensive organisation has been exemplarily, based on the Expected Goals model – how many goals an average team should have scored measured via the amount and quality of shots created – Austria’s average of 2.7 and Hungary’s 2.0 placed them as the 17th and 22nd ‘best’ attacks in the competition.
#ENG & #ISL fans having a sing-off in Nice's Old Town pic.twitter.com/RcX3KliX8O
— Simon Peach (@SimonPeach) June 26, 2016
The Hungarians did score six but fortune took hold; see Balazs Dzsudzsak’s deflected strikes v Portugal. Using that statistic for England who, as underwhelming as they have been, still created plenty of goalscoring opportunities, their expected goals for the group stage was 5.1 – among the top four at Euro 2016.
It can be dismissed as bluster but when Roy Hodgson says: “Sooner or later we’re going to make somebody pay”, as he did post-Slovakia, but it’s not without foundation. No team averages more shots per game (21.3) than England, and for all Iceland’s defensive solidity, it’s almost inconceivable Hodgson’s side won’t create 3-5 good opportunities tonight.
At the risk of boiling it down to the basics, the overriding fact is that Iceland just don’t have enough quality. Whether it be pace at full-back, where England will attack relentlessly, or consistency in the final third.
Every individual match-up – including Gylfi Sigurdsson v Eric Dier, who’s been among the best defensive midfielders in the tournament – falls in the favour of the English.
It will likely be frustrating, England will have to be patient but over the course of 90, maybe 120 minutes – with the strength of the respective benches coming into play – Hodgson’s side will prevail.
