#360view: Low relying on more luck than judgement

Hassan Cheema 07:00 06/07/2016
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  • Germany coach Joachim Low.

    On Saturday Germany became the first team to reach at least the semi-finals of six consecutive major tournaments. Even with their consistent over achievement in tournament football (since 1970 they’ve finished in the top-4 in 18 out of the 24 World Cups and Euros they’ve participated in), even in their celebrated history, this is new ground for Germany. And the man behind it all can do as he pleases – although hopefully in the absence of cameras. Joachim Low’s role in the past decade of German football only seems to improve. Assistant to Jurgen Klinsmann as Germany changed their identity, it is under Low that the country has finally fulfilled their destiny. For perspective, the worst case scenario would be just the one World Cup from this generation of players.

    And yet, this renaissance can’t curb the feeling that rises every time you see a Low lineup – is this man any good at his basic job at all? It might seem an outlandish question to ask at first glance yet how much of his success is down to the DFB’s changes at the turn of the century? Football’s past has generally been built around “great man history” but looking at Low you wonder if he’s just in the right place at the right time.

    Low’s modus operandi over the past eight years has been one of change, even where there was little need for it. By 2010 Germany had emerged as THE counter attacking force in international football, and yet one loss to Spain later Low decided to take a turn towards tiki taka. Two years and 15 wins in a row later he decided to alter his formation against Italy, changing three of his front four and bringing in Toni Kroos in favour of three midfielders instead of the more common. That change, in the semi-final of the European championships no less, could have cost him his job. It didn’t and four years later he would do the same, altering his formation to try to match Italy, even foregoing the strengths of his own team. This time around, his players’ mental fortitude in the penalty shootout earned him an escape.

    Joachim Low with Germany

    • 2008 European Championship: Runner-up
    • 2010 World Cup: Third-place
    • 2012 European Championship: Third-place
    • 2014 World Cup: Winners

    Among all of this, the greatest argument for him actually not being all that good may be borne out of his greatest achievement – the 2014 World Cup. Low started the tournament by copy and pasting the Bayern Munich template. Phillip Lahm started in midfield in each of the first four games, Germany playing two centre-halves as their full-backs. When Pep Guardiola moved Lahm to central midfield it was with the knowledge that he still had the likes of Rafinha and David Alaba to count on in wide defensive areas. Low didn’t have anyone half as good as them. In fact, the only one fit to fill Lahm’s enormous boots was Marcel Schmelzer, someone Low has never taken a liking to. Finally, sense prevailed for the quarter-final against France, with Lahm moving to right-back and Miroslav Klose brought in for his first start of the tournament. Suddenly, expectedly, Germany “peaked at the right time” and Low eventually brought home the silverware. It was management by trial and error, but at the fourth time of asking Low had won a major tournament and cemented his legacy.

    In a way, Low stands in contrast to the other great international manager of his era; Vicente del Bosque. The Spaniard took upon Barcelona’s style but never truly copied it word-for-word. His insistence on playing a double-pivot instead of the Barcelona midfield of Busquets and Xaviesta often brought him a lot of opprobrium, but it also delivered two major titles. His argument that Barca’s philosophy was not replicable because there was no Spanish Messi is one that Low could learn from. Of course, as Del Bosque has failed to adapt to the changing trends in football, he too could learn from Low about clean slates and reinvention.

    But I digress.

    This tournament hasn’t been all that kind to Low. And yet, just two games away from becoming European champions, you can’t count out him getting it right. Much like in 2014 he has already changed from a false nine to a proper centre forward and brought in a mobile right back. All that’s missing is for him to return to a three man midfield.

    In other countries one or two mistakes from a coach are enough to discard him to the scrapheap but Germany continue to march on, increasingly seeming like doing so in spite of a manager who may end up being their most successful ever. With the tournament playing out in France, it is fitting that Low’s legacy could best be described by a Frenchmen in the guise of Napolean, a man well aware of a general’s requirement to be lucky rather than good.

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