When Manchester United trudged off the pitch followed by a cacophony of disatisfaction at the end of last month’s FA Cup quarter-final loss to Arsenal, it was hard to imagine they would head into today’s derby as favourites.
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Much has changed since, most vitally in the formation and personnel utilised by manager Louis van Gaal. Belief in his project has strengthened since a trio of enlivening victories against Tottenham, Liverpool and Aston Villa saw them jump ahead of Manchester City into third.
The Dutchman’s cherished tactics folder that accompanies him in the dugout has finally thrown up a winning formula in a debut campaign full of aborted starts. A switch in shape to a flexible 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 and starting players was imperative after months of underwhelming displays.
Such evolution has not gripped the thoughts of intractable opposite number Manuel Pellegrini. The Premier League champions have limped through the last few months.
#AFC have been the form side this year but #MCFC have only taken 18 points from a possible 36 in 2015 #SSNHQ pic.twitter.com/oV73okinfU
— Sky Sports News HQ (@SkySportsNewsHQ) April 7, 2015
The sterile 4-4-2 usually utilised has remained in place despite a one-sided Champions League exit to Barcelona and three-match top-flight losing run on the road which has seen them clinging onto the top four rather than chasing the title.
Van Gaal has experimented with abandon this term, registering six different approaches from the bog-standard 4-4-2 to variations of the bemoaned 3-5-2. Sometimes the results and performances have been disturbing, especially his dalliance with the three-man defence.
His chopping and changing with players has also confused. The choke point caused by the lack of movement from strikers Robin van Persie and Radamel Falcao hindered the team for too long, especially with Wayne Rooney lost in midfield during the winter.
Van Gaal tells #MUTV that van Persie is back in training but not ready for the derby. The boss will wait and see on Smalling and Shaw. #mufc
— Manchester United (@ManUtd) April 10, 2015
Things had to change after the Arsenal defeat and they did. Spanish midfielder Ander Herrera was sacrificed at half-time in that game but he is now part of a vibrant link-up with compatriot Juan Mata in a nuanced side, his two goals last time out against Aston Villa emphasising his importance.
Rooney buzzes about up top, making a mockery of Van Gaal’s claims he did not possess a 20-goal-per-season cente forward.
City were not awful during the 2-1 loss at Crystal Palace last Monday night. They instead looked stale, the Eagles knowing exactly how to make the most of the growing fractures in their side.
Edin Dzeko was dreadful before being hooked, while partner Aguero heads into today’s derby amid a 556-minute goal drought. Yaya Toure has degenerated from midfield powerhouse to pussycat, while a general lethargy has overtaken a side no longer pressing with any vigour.
It is this listlessness which has been key. The same approach was utilised – to no surprise – by Pellegrini during a rollicking debut campaign which brought a leading 102 goals and the 2013/14 title.
The ex-Malaga boss can point to the fact that his side are joint-top scorers in the league with 63 goals from 31 games. But at the same stage last term, they had found the back of the net 84 times.
The time to shake up his side and reinvograte them with fresh ideas has arrived against City’s resurgent crosstown rivals. A failure to do so and Pellegrini’s public confidence regarding his job security will seem as misguided as his unbending tactical mindset.
