And then there were three. If there was any doubt that Atletico Madrid could mount a serious La Liga challenge this year, it was expunged in Estonia the moment Diego Costa lashed a grenade past Keylor Navas.
The UEFA Super Cup is a tame curtain-raiser compared to what will come but there is a sense that Atleti proved they can go the distance in the title race after dispatching Real Madrid after extra-time.
Reigning champions Barcelona have freshened up an aging squad and Julen Lopetegui, who suffered the trauma of being sacked by Spain after being handed the Real reins, must smooth out the Cristiano Ronaldo aftershocks.
We sum up the reasons for and against all three clubs hoisting the trophy come May – here it’s Atletico Madrid’s turn.
WHY ATLETICO WILL WIN LA LIGA
A transfer ban and the move to Wanda Metropolitano disrupted the early-season rhythm for a team which needed everything to go right to maintain a challenge. This year there are no off-field distractions to worry about and shrewd moves in the market have toned up the squad, while core muscle has been retained in the likes of Antoine Griezmann.
It’s not all about record signing Thomas Lemar – Rodri’s return from Villarreal is a like-for-like replacement for club legend Gabi. Full-back Santiago Arias and winger Gelson Martins are not guaranteed starters but at the very least are top quality depth.
Diego Simeone has been at the helm for seven years now and his players would willingly throw themselves under a bus for his street fighter mentality. But make no mistake, Atleti won’t just compete with the big boys – they are big boys. Indeed Atletico’s UEFA Super Cup squad was worth more than Real’s according to transfermarkt.com.
WHY ATLETICO WON’T WIN LA LIGA
When it comes to the crunch, can they beat both Barca and Real over 90 minutes? The last time Atleti got one over the El Clasico pair in the league was in February 2016, when Griezmann silenced the Bernabeu. The squad may have improved markedly but Simeone’s charges will have much to prove when they step out onto their city rivals’ patch on September 29.
When they arrive there they may be at a disadvantage already – while Atleti were handed a fiendishly tricky opener away to Valencia, Barcelona should breeze past Alaves and Real likewise against Getafe. In a season of fine margins, playing catch-up would not be fun at all.
There are no problems at the back between Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez – but do they have the artillery to last the season? Barca and Real were touching 100 goals in La Liga last season while Atleti mustered just 58. The four or five-goal thumpings may skew the statistics in the bigger two’s favour, but occasionally those have been the games that Simeone’s men haven’t put to bed.
KEY STORYLINE
With motivation and age two question marks hovering over Real and Barca’s respective midfields, this could be the season Atleti’s middle men become the envy of Europe.
Simeone’s preference for a 4-4-2 is such Atleti will never rule possession with an iron grip – and that’s just fine. Koke (26) and Saul (23) have the tenacious streak their manager revelled in many moons ago, but that combat is married with an extraordinary range of passing to unlock doors out wide or through central two Griezmann and Diego Costa.
Rodri’s addition should give that pair a degree more control – the sight of those three and an electric Lemar flying across the pitch should be a joy to behold.
