Where Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich will be won and lost

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Who will celebrate the win?

A 2-1 win at the Allianz Arena last week gave Real Madrid the edge, with Bayern Munich now needing to score at least twice to get anything out of the tie at the Bernabeu.

It sets up an enthralling second-leg to this quarter-final and here, we look at what each side needs to do in order to win the match and advance to the semi-finals.

Let’s start with the home side…

HELP MARCELO

Bayern’s clear strategy in the first-half was to feed Arjen Robben as much as possible, attempting to isolate him one-on-one against Marcelo.

The Brazilian is often left unsupported by his teammates, especially when Cristiano Ronaldo plays wide left in a 4-3-3, and Zinedine Zidane must give someone responsibility to track back.

GET THE RIGHT BALANCE

Scoring goals is never a problem for Real Madrid, who have registered at least one in every single game since their goalless draw at Man City in last season’s semi-final first leg.

But against a team with Bayern’s firepower they cannot make scoring their only aim, and striking the right balance between defence and attack will be crucial.

As for Bayern Munich…

STOP SERGIO RAMOS

Bayern only still have a chance in this tie thanks to a linesman’s raised flag in stoppage time last week, correctly cancelling out a Sergio Ramos set-piece header for offside.

That narrow escape must be a serious warning for Bayern, who cannot afford to ignore the attacking threat posed by Madrid’s captain from dead-ball situations.

FEED LEWANDOWSKI

Robert Lewandowski has enjoyed outstanding success against Real in the past, scoring a hat-trick in Dortmund’s 4-1 thrashing of the Spanish giants four years ago.

Bayern badly missed their injured leading scorer last week, but now he’s back and they must make the very most of his firepower by giving him plenty of ammunition.

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COMMENT: Dybala not 'The New Messi' but a star in his own right

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‘The New Messi’ – The feared label seems to plague every promising left-footed forward and Paulo Dybala tops that extensive list at the moment.

It’s a term he’s openly denounced in the past and has done so again in the aftermath of a scintillating performance that helped Juventus sink Lionel Messi’s Barcelona on Tuesday night.

“I understand the comparisons and expectations on me but I do not want to be the new Messi or the Messi of the future.”

The 23-year-old can distance himself from the unwanted tag all he wants but it will always rear its ugly head, especially when he insists on playing the way he did in the 3-0 Champions League quarter-final victory.

The comparisons with Messi aren’t completely unjustified. After all, they’re both Argentinian, left-footed and ridiculously gifted players. But Dybala is his own player, relying more on his velvet touch, clinical finishing and intelligence.


Given Juventus’ triumph, the appealing narrative is that Messi’s eventual decline (which is still years away one would suspect) gives way to Dybala’s rise to prominence. But the five-time Ballon d’Or winner was not played off the park on Tuesday and neither were Barcelona.

In fact, the Catalans did have moments to reduce the deficit and Messi was at the heart of it. At 1-0, he produced a through ball that cut straight through Juventus’ midfield and defensive lines only for Gianluigi Buffon to produce a brilliant save to deny Andres Iniesta.

While some may misconstrue Dybala’s dominating display against Barcelona as further evidence that he is indeed The New Messi, it should instead point to a coming of age for the Juventus ace, the night he established himself as a truly world class player and one we can expect to be thrilled by for years to come.


The Ballon d’Or has been won by either Cristiano Ronaldo or Messi for the last nine years (Messi winning five times and Ronaldo four) with Kaka being the last recipient apart from that twosome, back in 2007.

The iconic rivalry between two of the best players to ever grace a football pitch has defined the modern era of the game with the third nominee acting as little more than a prop for photo ops.

But all good things must come to an end and so must this phenomenal duopoly over the most prestigious individual prize in football.

Boasting an exceptional record at club and international level, Neymar has already staked his claim to call one of those golden globes his own one day as has Antoine Griezmann but in Dybala they will encounter a fierce competitor.

The Argentine signed for Palermo in 2012 and after proving his mettle at the Serie A side, it was club President Maurizio Zamparini who first declared: “He’s the new Leo Messi!”

In Turin, Dybala has grown into an outstanding performer, scoring 23 times last season and already notching up 16 so far in this campaign.

He’s regularly shown flashes of brilliance but his two clever finishes on Tuesday, on such a big stage against top class opposition showed the pedigree of a supreme talent eager to assume more responsibility and take over the mantle as the team’s talisman.

While he is not a direct replacement for 29-year-old Messi, when the Barcelona legend eventually rides off into the sunset, Dybala will be a front-runner to assume the throne in Argentinian football.

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COMMENT: Atletico's defence at home a worry for Foxes

Andy West 12/04/2017
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Chelsea, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Not a bad collection of teams. In fact, nobody other than those four heavyweights has lifted the Champions League trophy since Internazionale in 2010.

But staying on the subject of that competition, do you know what else they have in common?

The eyebrow-raising answer is that they have all failed to score in a knockout tie at Atletico Madrid’s Vicente Calderon stadium in the last three years.

Indeed, it is more than three years since ANY visiting player has succeeded in netting a single goal at Atletico’s atmospheric home in a European knockout tie, a sequence which dates back eight-and-a-half games and encompasses nearly 800 minutes of action.

The last visiting player to score at the Vicente Calderon in a knockout tie was Kaka, who netted for AC Milan in the 27th minute of their last sixteen meeting on 11 March 2014 (but even that didn’t count for much, with Atletico going on to win 5-1 on aggregate).

Since then, Atletico’s results in home knockout clashes have been as follows: 1-0 vs Barcelona; 0-0 vs Chelsea; 1-0 vs Bayer Leverkusen; 0-0 vs Real Madrid; 0-0 vs PSV; 2-0 vs Barcelona; 1-0 vs Bayern Munich; 0-0 vs Bayer Leverkusen.

Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Robert Lewandowski – not to mention Demba Ba, Luuk de Jong and Javier Hernandez – have all attempted to breach Atletico’s defences on big European nights in the last few years, but none have succeeded.

Another way of stating Atletico’s defensive stinginess is by pointing to a different statistic: they have only conceded one solitary goal, bizarrely scored by Rostov in this season’s group phase, in any of their last nine Champions League home games.

So whichever way you look at the task facing Leicester’s Jamie Vardy and co on Wednesday, it’s pretty clear that somehow managing to register an all-important away goal will be exceptionally difficult for the Foxes.

The key factor behind Atletico’s defensive brilliance is the discipline and organisation implemented by manager Diego Simeone and his assistant, German ‘Mono’ Burgos.

That coaching duo are the best around at utilising their time on the training ground to ensure their team defends truly as a whole team, with all 11 players moving in perfect synchronicity to close down space and deny their opponents opportunities to work the ball into dangerous areas.

But they also have outstanding individuals at their disposal, starting at the back where Jan Oblak now surely deserves to be regarded as one of the finest goalkeepers in the world.

The Slovenian arrived from Benfica in the summer of 2014 following Thibaut Courtois’ departure to Chelsea and was initially slow to settle, making a poor Champions League debut in a 3-2 loss at Olympiacos and initially losing the starting spot to Miguel Angel Moya.

But a hamstring injury to Moya towards the end of that campaign allowed Oblak to have a second opportunity, and he has not looked back since.

Last season he played every minute of the La Liga campaign and equalled an all-time record by conceding just 18 goals in 38 games, as well as those Champions League clean sheets to help Atletico into the final.

And this year he has recovered from injury to arguably reach even greater heights, showing his quality with a number of excellent saves in Saturday’s Madrid derby draw at the Bernabeu.

The brilliance of Oblak, who is still only 24, significantly enhances Atletico’s chances of advancing to the semi-finals and beyond yet again, because away goals are simply so, so important in two-legged ties.

In fact, last season only one team succeeded in progressing to the next stage without scoring an away goal – eventual champions Real Madrid, who did it twice by mounting a big comeback against Wolfsburg after a 2-0 loss in Germany, and then overcame Manchester City 1-0 on aggregate with a narrow home win.

In all the other 12 ties, however, it was necessary to score an away goal to advance, and Leicester’s chances of continuing their remarkable fairy-tale story will be severely hampered if they don’t score on Wednesday.

The question is…how?

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