For the second day running, Group D produced a stunning result at the World Cup, with Nigeria beating Iceland 2-0 on Friday to follow up Croatia’s 3-0 win over Argentina from Thursday.
Iceland – who had held Argentina to a draw in their opener – were themselves upset thanks to an inspired tactical switch and a brilliant display from Ahmed Musa, who scored both of Nigeria’s goals. Gylfi Sigurdsson missed a late penalty that could have sparked a comeback, or at least mitigated the damage to Iceland’s goal difference.
Here are three takeaways from the game.
NIGERIA TACTICAL SWITCH PAYS DIVIDENDS
Nigeria tried going toe to toe with Croatia in their opening game with a 4-2-3-1 formation, but ended up being overmatched. Credit Gernot Rohr for recognising that he needed to change his strategy, and drop the players who underperformed in the first game.
Opting for a 3-5-2, and bringing in Musa and Kelechi Iheanacho for Alex Iwobi and Odion Ighalo, proved to be a masterstroke. The formation change allowed Nigeria to pack the middle of the pitch, forcing Iceland to go wide and negating the influence of Sigurdsson.
It wasn’t a foolproof ploy – Iceland are always a threat from wide positions, with their ability to produce brilliant crosses on display again, but with three defensive midfielders backing up the defenders Nigeria were able to deal with the danger.
Meanwhile, Iheanacho did a much better job of holding up the ball and linking play than Ighalo had in the first game. But it was Musa who truly vindicated his manager’s decisions, popping up with two brilliant goals while proving a constant menace to Iceland’s usually unflappable defence. It says it all that a rearguard which nullified Lionel Messi couldn’t handle Leicester City’s out-of-favour forward.
Speaking of Messi, Nigeria will back themselves to contain what has been a below-par Argentina side so far with this formation.
Gernot Rohr’s tactical switch proved to be a masterstroke.
FAVOURITES TAG WEIGHS HEAVY ON ICELAND
Iceland have made a name for themselves as world football’s ultimate underdogs, finding a path to success with resolute defending and making the most of their attacking opportunities. Here, however, they were favourites, not a position they find themselves in often, and the tag didn’t suit them well.
They tried sticking to their usual gameplan, ceding possession – they only had 39 per cent of the ball on Friday – but Nigeria’s set-up flummoxed them. The Super Eagles’ 3-5-2 dulled Iceland’s attacking threat and allowed them to counter at pace, and Iceland had no answer.
Their attempts to play through the middle only began working towards the end, at which point they almost over-elaborated, on occasion trying to score the perfect team goal when they could have opted against a final pass. From the flanks, they produced some trademark brilliant crosses, but Nigeria were equal to the task – if at times only through some fortunate or last-ditch defending.
Perhaps being underdogs against Croatia – not just in the match, but to qualify at all – will suit them, and they’ll be able to pull off something miraculous. That’s their only hope at this point, because their first go at being frontrunners in a big game was disastrous.
Iceland couldn’t produce their usual magic in a rare game they were favourites.
GROUP D ON EDGE HEADING INTO FINAL ROUND
Croatia’s stunning win against Argentina on Thursday threw this group wide open, and while Nigeria are now in pole position to join the Croats in the Round of 16, it’s far from clear-cut.
At the moment, Nigeria are in second place in the group standings with three points, ahead of Iceland and Argentina, who both have a point each; Iceland are ahead of Argentina on goal difference. Nigeria play Argentina and Iceland face already qualified Croatia in the final round of matches next Tuesday.
The Super Eagles are the only one of the three teams with their fate in their own hands. A win guarantees their spot in the Round of 16, with the small chance of qualifying as group winners, which would require a Croatia loss plus a six-goal swing in Nigeria’s favour. A Nigeria draw may also be enough, although they could then end up level on points with Iceland if the latter win, bringing goal difference into play.
For Argentina nothing but a win will do, although even that may not be enough if Iceland win, with qualification then coming down to which of the two sides finishes with the better goal difference. Iceland also absolutely must win, and then hope Nigeria-Argentina ends in a draw or an Argentina win, which would again leave qualification depending on goal difference.
Sigurdsson’s penalty miss on Friday could thus prove crucial – had he scored, they’d be two goals better off than Argentina and have the same goal difference as Nigeria. Likewise, Argentina will be ruing the margin of their loss to Croatia.
Nigeria’s win has put them in pole position for the second qualifying spot in Group D.
