If the NBA offseason has already felt like a whirlwind of chaos less than three weeks in, it’s about to get a whole lot crazier as free agency begins today.
Two stars have already switched teams with Jimmy Butler and Chris Paul traded to Minnesota and Houston, respectively, and more seismic movement could be on the way.
The most coveted player that could realistically find a new home is All-Star Gordon Hayward, who is potentially the first domino in a chain reaction.
For the first time in his seven-year career, the 27-year-old swingman will be an unrestricted free agent with the power to choose his next team. He’s expected to decide between either remaining with Utah, where he’s spent his entire career since being drafted in 2010, or jumping to the Eastern Conference for Miami or Boston.
Hayward will first meet with the Heat today after free agency starts at midnight (UAE: 08:00), before visiting the Celtics tomorrow and the incumbent Jazz on Monday, according to reports.
While Utah can offer a five-year contract at an estimated $180 million (Dh661m) – compared to the maximum four-year deal for $127m (Dh466m) at Miami or Boston – their financial advantage isn’t as staggering as it appears.
Hayward could aim to ink for three years (or four with an opt-out after the third season), regardless of which team he signs with, in order to hit free agency again at the age of 30 when he would have 10 years of experience and be eligible for the largest max contract possible.
In that scenario, Utah’s advantage shrinks to around $3-5m over the next three years, making Hayward’s decision less financially-driven and more about preference.
Hayward’s blossoming with the Jazz has coincided with the team’s upward trajectory, with the franchise in promising position with a young core that also includes Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood and Dante Exum.
They won 51 games last season, field one of the league’s best defences and have an up-and-coming coach in Quin Snyder, meaning there are plenty of reasons for Hayward to stick around.
In Utah, however, Hayward is stuck competing in the same conference as Golden State’s budding dynasty, which knocked off the Jazz in the second round of the playoffs, while the Eastern Conference presents an easier path to contention.
That’s what Miami and Boston can provide, as well as their similarly strong organisational stability, two of the best coaches around and a history of winning.
Each team also has its own unique selling points, such as Miami boasting weather, nightlife and no state income tax, while Boston have Brad Stevens – Hayward’s college coach at Butler – rich tradition and a foundation that was already good enough to win 53 games, attain the East’s top seed and reach the conference finals.
The Celtics and general manager Danny Ainge could have an ace up their sleeve though, in the form of Paul George.
Boston are attempting to sign Hayward and then trade for the Indiana star swingman to form their own version of a ‘superteam’ to compete with Cleveland and the Warriors.
A trade likely hinges on Hayward’s commitment, both for salary cap ramifications – the Celtics need to maintain max cap space to bring in Hayward, but not George – and Ainge’s philosophical approach.
As Boston owner Wyc Grousbeck said back in February, the team is still “two significant guys away” from truly contending.
I wrote about a Paul George + Gordon Hayward scenario for the Celtics a few days ago (updated for $99M salary cap): https://t.co/ykyr92bGER— Albert Nahmad (@AlbertNahmad) June 23, 2017
If Hayward does reunite with Stevens, the Celtics would have all the ammunition to acquire George, with any combination of their assets – young players and draft picks – unlikely to be trumped by any other team.
If Hayward stays in Utah or signs with Miami, Boston could pursue Blake Griffin as a back-up plan. The big man could be the next star to exit Los Angeles after the Clippers traded Paul.
Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, meanwhile, despite technically being the top free agents available on the market, are unsurprisingly expected to stay put in the Bay Area and re-sign with defending champions, the Warriors.
TOP FREE AGENTS
1. Kevin Durant, unrestricted
Another offseason, another summer where Durant is on the open market. This time, of course, he’s not going anywhere, other than back to the team he just helped lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.
2. Stephen Curry, unrestricted
This is actually an important free agency period for Curry, not because he has a decision to make as to where he’ll play, but because he’ll finally get a big pay day after being arguably the NBA’s best valued (i.e. cheap) contract.
3. Gordon Hayward, unrestricted
The closer we’ve gotten to free agency, the more it feels like Hayward will leave Utah, which may have everything to do with avoiding the West. If Boston can sell him on also getting Paul George, it could be a done deal.
4. Blake Griffin, unrestricted
There’s no denying his talent and skill, but Griffin is an injury concern and as such, could take a shorter deal than the five years Los Angeles can offer. Wherever he goes, he should be more free to act as a playmaker.
Blake Griffin scheduled to meet with Phoenix Suns Saturday, per source. Suns can offer BG 4 year deal, $130 million.— Brad Turner (@BA_Turner) June 29, 2017
5. Kyle Lowry, unrestricted
At 31, this is likely to be Lowry’s last big payday, but it could depend on the point guard market, which seems oversaturated. He’ll still have options and it’s a case where the team (Toronto) needs the player more than vice versa.
6. Paul Millsap, unrestricted
It would appear shortsighted if Atlanta don’t do everything possible to bring Millsap back, considering they took him off the trade market near the deadline. But he’s also 32 and while still very good, could soon be on the decline.
7. Serge Ibaka, unrestricted
Toronto could watch Ibaka leave after being nothing more than a one-year rental, or they could overpay to retain him. He’s still useful, but his inconsistencies on both ends mean he’s not a max player.
8. Otto Porter Jr, restricted
The swingman took a significant step forward in his development this past season and at 24, is already a good two-way player. His shooting has continually improved and his length makes him suitable for the modern game.
Wizards will make an aggressive offer at 12:01 am tonight -- and match any offer -- to ensure they keep Otto Porter, @TheUndefeated reports.— Mike Wise (@MikeWiseguy) June 30, 2017
9. JJ Redick, unrestricted
The 33-year-old sharpshooter is just as efficient as ever, meaning he could be a perfect role player for a contender or put up more inflated stats on a middling squad.
10. George Hill
Hill isn’t good enough to be a top point guard, but is overqualified as a role player. Teams with a need at the position could do a whole lot worse than the veteran. A Spurs reunion would make sense.