Here we go. Seven months of the NBA has led to a repeat of last year’s epic Finals and we’re almost guaranteed to get another entertaining series to crown a champion.
Let’s get right to the match-ups. San Antonio’s offence starts with Tony Parker, the head of the snake.
While his status for the series is unclear due to his ankle injury, the point guard will likely play and if he looks like his usual self, the question is then who Miami use to defend Parker.
Last year, the Frenchman destroyed Heat point guards Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole in isolation plays, getting to the rim with ease. However, he had a much more difficult time when LeBron James took on the task of guarding him in crunch-time situations.
Parker hit a few difficult, clutch shots with James hanging on him, but for the most part, didn’t have the same success scoring.
When James played more on Parker in Games 6 and 7, he shot just a combined 9-of-35 from the field. To counter, the Spurs will utilise Manu Ginobili as a secondary ballhandler and playmaker.
Ginobili can facilitate the offence through pick-and-rolls is unlikely to make the same mistakes he made in the final two contests of last year, when he turned the ball over 12 times.
For his career in the playoffs, Ginobili averages 2.5 turnovers and his bad decisions in the Finals loss was uncharacteristic of a normally intelligent and creative player.
Another key factor is the continued growth of Kawhi Leonard. He often got the better of James last year and was also a beast on the boards, averaging 11.1 rebounds, and played the passing lanes to the tune of two steals per game.
As much as Leonard is easily the best defender on the Spurs and the logical choice to guard LeBron, San Antonio could shift him at times onto Dwyane Wade, as the Indiana Pacers did with Paul George towards the end of the Eastern Conference finals.
Wade is much fresher than last year and started the Pacers series strong, but had trouble getting to the rim once George moved over.
Miami are going to need Wade to score to win the Finals again, like he did averaging 23.5 in the final four contests last year – three of which the Heat won.
If Leonard can limit Wade, James may be forced to score 30-plus to keep up with San Antonio, hindering his desire to set up his team-mates.
Verdict: Overall, the Spurs are just a better team with their role players improved this time around. The Heat still have James and it’s not smart to bet against the best player in the series, let alone the best player in the game, but his supporting cast is not nearly where it was at last year.
Prediction: San Antonio in 6.
