The winding journey LeBron James has travelled in his career has brought him full circle, back to where he was eight years ago in his first shouldering of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals.
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After everything James experienced since leaving Cleveland – namely winning two titles in Miami – he finds himself exiting a DeLorean and into the Finals older and more experienced but in a comparable situation to the one he was in when he reached the stage for the first time in 2007.
That year saw the San Antonio Spurs hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy with a thorough sweeping of James and Cavaliers, serving as a lesson for the young superstar of just how hard it is to win a title.
James is wiser and more experienced now, but the cast of characters playing alongside him could once again be what holds him back.
The view from the other side. https://t.co/HcU7Ga8Ndk
— Golden St. Warriors (@warriors) June 4, 2015
Kevin Love is out with an injury and Kyrie Irving is hobbled. J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson have all been more than adequate for the Cavaliers to reach the Finals, but as was the case in 2007, a monster from the West with sharper claws and teeth awaits.
Although he has the ability to come close, James can’t beat this favoured Golden State Warriors team alone. Here are the three biggest factors that will determine who this season’s champion will be:
Defending Curry
Cleveland’s defence has done well for the most part against ball screens in the postseason, allowing just 1.00 points per possession. Stephen Curry, however, is a different challenge entirely.
The Warriors point guard sucks defences past even the perimeter and forces you to pick your poison of whether to switch or not.
The Cavaliers can somewhat hold their own when Tristan Thompson switches off Draymond Green and onto Curry in the Curry-Green pick-and-roll, but Golden State can just pull the less-mobile Timofey Mozgov outside with a Curry-Andrew Bogut screen.
Off the ball, Kyrie Irving’s injury won’t make it any easier to chase Curry around, so Cleveland will have to use Iman Shumpert and even LeBron at times, especially in key moments, on the MVP.
The Cavaliers’ defence has been stellar so far, but the offensive fluidity of the Warriors will be a true test.
LeBron on an island
Cleveland’s offence has basically reverted back to ‘give LeBron the ball and get out of the way’, which is what we mostly saw in his first stint in a Cavs uniform.
He’s still the best player in the world though and teams in the playoffs have thrown double-teams at him to try to slow down his scoring. The problem with that is James has created open 3-point looks for his team-mates on the perimeter.
James will likely head to the post more and try to bully his way to the rim, where, despite struggling with his shot, he’s finishing 70 per cent in the restricted area in the playoffs.
Golden State would be better served letting James get his and instead taking away the outside shooting that comes from sending help his way.
Offensive glass v fast breaks
Aside from James and the 3-pointer, the biggest weapon for Cleveland in the playoffs has been offensive rebounding.
The X-Factor… a look at @Money23Green‘s season with the @Warriors! #NBAFinals https://t.co/JIqOHgkEs2
— NBA (@NBA) June 2, 2015
The Cavaliers have grabbed 12.1 offensive boards per game, with Tristan Thompson snagging 4.0 himself, resulting in crucial extra possessions.
Cleveland can do just as much damage against the average defensive rebounding of the Warriors, but it comes with a risk.
If the Cavs commit too much on the offensive glass, they’ll get roasted in transition with Curry and Klay Thompson running free. Either way, it’ll be an x-factor.
