All Blacks expected to win Bledisloe Cup but it may be closer than you think

Alex Broun 12:40 19/08/2017
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Mail
  • Pinterest
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • WhatsApp
  • Pinterest
  • LinkedIn
  • As two-sided contests go it’s harder to find one more lopsided than the Bledisloe Cup. The annual three Test series between the All Blacks and the Wallabies has been won for the last 14 years straight by New Zealand.

    The last time an Australian captain held aloft the famous old cup was in 2002. With Australian rugby at one of the lowest points in their history, with the axing of the Western Force and Australian teams losing 26 straight matches to New Zealand teams in this year’s Super Rugby, it’s easy to expect another dominant series for the All Blacks.

    Certainly last year’s results, won comprehensively by New Zealand with a combined score of 108-27 (37-10, 29-9 and 42-8) doesn’t fill Wallaby fans with any confidence.

    But, famous last words, this year’s series might be a little closer than we all expect. It’s difficult to go all out and predict an Australia victory but expect matches to be tighter.

    Firstly, Australia host two of the matches this season, the first game in Sydney today and the third in Brisbane in October.

    Home advantage means nothing to the All Blacks who have put in some of their most dominant performances away from home in recent seasons, including the 42-8 hammering of the Wallabies in Sydney and the 57-15 destruction of the Springboks in Durban, both last year.

    But if Australia are to win a match you would fancy it to come in Sydney or Brisbane. Secondly the Wallabies have finally got their team right.

    Coach Michael Cheika has made some bizarre selections over the last 18 months, in the name of trying out new combinations, but he seems to have done away with that, at least for this first Test, and put the right players in the right positions.

    Mobile and physical Rebels No8 Sean McMahon is finally at the back of the scrum, his first match back there since France in Paris last November, a match coincidentally the Wallabies won.

    Rory Arnold joins Adam Coleman in a formidable second row combination and Kurtley Beale lines up for his first Test since the Rugby World Cup final in 2015, alongside Reds centre Samu Kerevi in a dangerous looking mid-field.

    Sean McMahon is back at the scrum for the Wallabies.

    Sean McMahon is back for the Wallabies.

    New captain Michael Hooper will also be keen to start his tenure with a win. In contrast All Blacks boss Steve Hansen seems to have erred in his selection with the omission of Jerome Kaino and the make-up of the back three. The game plan seems to be to run Australia off their feet, something the All Blacks have had great success with in recent years.

    But Kaino has been a linchpin of the All Blacks pack for many seasons and it seems an odd time to transition to the younger faster Liam Squires. There is a 60 per cent chance of rain in Sydney today and if the game does slow down he may rue being without Kaino.

    His back three is also curious, with the No1 full-back in the world, Ben Smith, moving to the wing and Chiefs utility Damian McKenzie coming in in his place, meaning there is no place for either Israel Dagg or the impressive Ngani Laumape in the 23.

    The All Blacks have also been distracted with off field issues with renewed allegations against scrum half Aaron Smith over his bathroom bete noire as well as the trial of security consultant Adrian Gard for the 2016 hotel bugging incident.

    Usually these issues would not distract the All Blacks, but it still gives Australia reason to hope.

    Recommended