If you had stumbled into the Millennium Stadium yesterday afternoon unaware of the state of the Six Nations championship, you would most likely have assumed victory for Wales had clinched the title.
– England beat Scotland to keep Six Nations dream alive
– Wales blow title race wide open with win over Ireland
– #360view: Two Six Nations captains from different eras
Few blasts of a referee’s whistle have elicited the kind of reaction that greeted Wayne Barnes’ decision to award penalties in the 57th and final minutes. But while the streets around the Millennium Stadium were overflowing with jubilant Welshmen and women, those same supporters will awake this morning with something of a sinking feeling.
Two points for Wales has of course reinvigorated their championship, but the cold hard fact is that victory for the hosts has given England the advantage. It is now Stuart Lancaster’s side who lead the way with one round of fixtures to play, separated from Ireland and Wales by points difference alone.
The margin of England’s defeat of Scotland at Twickenham yesterday means that they possess a four-point advantage over the second-placed Irish and 25 over Wales.
The Red Rose welcome France to Twickenham next Saturday for a game that is crucially the final of the three scheduled. That means that Lancaster, if not his players, will know the exact equation that will see them finish on top of the pile following three-straight second-place finishes.
REPORT: #Wales end #Ireland‘s Grand Slam hopes with hard-fought victory @MCThomasSport http://t.co/oDbGgcP4f4 pic.twitter.com/9FuWg0JZGx
— Sport360° (@Sport_360) March 14, 2015
Indeed it is not beyond the realms of possibility that England could be crowned champions before their game even kicks off. Should Wales fail to beat Italy in Rome by more than 24 points, and Ireland succumb to Scotland in Edinburgh then events at Twickenham would become irrelevant.
All of which makes a mockery of the Six Nations’ organising committee not to play the final round of fixtures simultaneously.
It is also intriguing that for the second year in a row, while they cannot win it themselves, it is Les Bleus that hold the destiny of the championship in their hands.
Last season England put pressure on Ireland with a 52-11 victory over Italy in Rome, and it took an almighty effort from the men in green to get the championship over the line.
France put up a fight 12 months ago and it will be interesting to see which Les Bleus side turn up at Twickenham.
It is the oldest cliche in rugby that they can play like world-beaters one week and amateurs the next, and both Wales and Ireland will hope they can maintain their focus for seven more days.
That Ireland don’t go into the final weekend with the championship in their own hands is largely of their own doing. Joe Schmidt’s side will rarely play as badly as they did for much of the first half.
Wales took them on in the areas where they are strongest – the aerial battle and line-out – and completely beat them up for 40 minutes.
They were much improved in the second half, but while Wales’ 289 tackles – that included 37 for Luke Charteris on his own – is undoubtedly impressive, question marks must be asked of an attacking unit that spent over nine minutes camped on their opponents’ line without scoring.
Their inability to cut through as Scott Williams did has cost them dear and, barring some determined French resistance, appears to have set England on their way to the most unlikely of championship wins.
