As tennis history awaits the result of today’s Roland Garros final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, Sport360°'s Reem Abulleil tells us why the world No1 and holder of the last three Grand Slams titles is still the underdog.
1. Nadal has been the better player at the 2012 French Open.
History aside, the No2 seed has been flawless in Paris this fortnight while Djokovic simply has not. The Spaniard, who is yet to drop a set, has been broken only once in 72 service games, saving 18 of 19 break points (95 per cent), while Djokovic was broken 16 times, saving 20 of 36 break points he faced (56 per cent).
The Serb was down by two sets against Andreas Seppi in the fourth round, and was two-sets-to-one behind against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarter-finals. He may have defeated Roger Federer in straight sets, but he was at least one break down in the first two sets before he managed to turn things around.
While coming back in those matches is a testament to Djokovic’s mental ability, he simply cannot afford to fall behind against someone as dominant as Nadal on this surface. Unless Nadal’s service game completely disintegrates overnight, there is no way Djokovic can pull off a comeback like that against the Mallorcan today.
2. Djokovic has never beaten Nadal in Paris
Whether we like it or not, history does play a factor in matches and Nadal’s numbers at Roland Garros are just too exceptional to discard. The 26-year-old holds a 51-1 win-loss record in Paris, with his only defeat coming to Robin Soderling in 2009 running on bad knees.
Since Nadal made his winning debut at the French Open in 2005, he has beaten Djokovic on all three occasions they’ve met at the tournament, and the top-seeded Serb is yet to take a set off Nadal in Paris.
It is Djokovic’s first ever final at Roland Garros, yet it is Nadal’s seventh. Philippe Chatrier Stadium is Nadal’s home and no one has ever beaten him on it in six finals.
3. With history knocking on their doors, Nadal has the better end of the deal
For Djokovic, a career Grand Slam is on the line as well as the prospect of winning four straight Majors – a feat that hasn’t been done since Rod Laver in 1969. For Nadal, an unprecedented seventh Roland Garros awaits him, but like the Spaniard told the Tennis Channel before the final – he is more than happy with the six he already has.
Djokovic is gunning for much greater glory, that has never been experienced by any of his contemporaries, neither Nadal nor Federer. His wobbly form this week is perhaps a result of the pressure he is under and today, it will take a massive effort to handle it against the ‘King of Clay’.
4. Nadal seems to have snapped the Djokovic curse
After losing seven straight finals to Djokovic, Nadal finally broke the pattern and beat the world No1 twice heading into Paris, on the clay of Monte Carlo against a grieving Djokovic but later more convincingly on the clay of Rome.
Those two wins have helped Nadal to a 16-1 record on clay coming to Roland Garros, a run which included three titles. Djokovic on the other hand has not managed to grab a title on the dirt this season.
5. The antithesis of the above
Despite all of the above, Djokovic has not lost a best-of-five match to Nadal since September 2010 at the US Open finals. While he hasn’t been white-washing his opponents the way Nadal has been throughout the fortnight, he still managed to make the final and has been the better player on the most important points. His mental strength should not be underestimated.
Sport360° Verdict
Like Federer, Djokovic and almost the entire tennis world has said, Nadal is the clear favourite. Both his serve and backhand have tremendously improved which means the Serb can’t target the backhand as easily as he has done last year.
If Nadal serves the way he has been all two weeks, we tip the Spaniard to win in four.
