For the first time ever, Rafael Nadal heads into Roland Garros with three losses and only one title on European clay.
When the Mallorcan “King of Clay” fell to David Ferrer in the Monte Carlo quarters, it was a surprise but it wasn’t unfathomable.
When he lost to another Spaniard, Nicolas Almagro, in the Barcelona quarters shortly after, it was unusual and worrying but still it wasn’t time to hit the panic button just yet.
He won Madrid, which ironically is his least successful event during this clay swing, but he was troubled by Kei Nishikori in the final before the Japanese suffered an injury and retired in the third set.
With all the struggles Nadal faced in Rome, battling through four three-setters, including a loss to Novak Djokovic in the final; is it fair to say the Spaniard is no longer the hot favourite in Roland Garros?
The answer is no – an eight-time champion in the past nine years, Nadal will be considered a Roland Garros favourite until the day he hangs up his racquet.
But it’s also a fact that Nadal is playing at an inferior level to his main rivals at the moment. Both Djokovic and Murray highlighted some key problems with the Spaniard’s game this past week.
Murray was dictating play, pushing Nadal behind the baseline and had the top seed not changed his tactics and gone more to the net to win the second set, he would have lost that match.
You got the sense that even though the Scot lost, he was the better player overall that day.
In the final, Djokovic was taking the ball early, giving the lefty world No1 no time to attack. Nadal was not returning as well as he is accustomed to, and suffered on his backhand, especially with Djokovic showing a significant improvement on his forehand side, hitting 22 winners off that wing.
Neither player were at their best in the final though and Nadal managed to sneak away with a set when Djokovic’s unforced errors crept in.
In best-of-five matches in Paris, Nadal will have more room to recover from setbacks like the ones he had in Rome, but players like Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka and even Ferrer can pose a real threat to him if he is having an off day.
The good news for Nadal is that he won’t be facing those players in the early rounds, which is when he has typically struggled in the previous editions of the French Open (think Daniel Brands last year and John Isner in 2011).
The main worrying point is that Nadal said he felt tired. Those aren’t words we hear from him often and he will need all the energy he can get if he plans on winning a ninth title in Paris.
If he’s physically and mentally fresh, then we can expect a few tough early rounds for him before he hits his stride at the French Open.
As for Djokovic, the win over Nadal has undoubtedly boosted his confidence (he’s won their last four meetings), but he also has some fine-tuning to do. He’s lost in his last four Grand Slam appearances and that surely is in the back of his mind as well.
