It is easy to be in awe of Andy Murray’s clay game at the moment. After all, he did just beat the greatest player to ever grace that surface, on his opponent’s home ground, in front of his Queen.
Murray’s win in the Madrid final over Rafael Nadal gave him back-to-back clay titles – the first two of his career on the red dirt – and in return, sent the Spaniard from No4 to No7 in the world rankings just two weeks ahead of Roland Garros.
– #Quiz360: WIN brunch for two at the Capital Centro Hotel, AD
– Murray stuns Nadal on clay for first time to win Madrid Open
– Novak Djokovic ‘motivated’ by historic French Open bid
Moments after the match, Greg Rusedski said on Sky Sports that Murray was the second favourite for the French Open title, behind Novak Djokovic, and many other pundits were making similar statements, noting the Scot’s “major improvement” on clay.
While no one can deny Murray has had a stellar two weeks and has every right to head into the French with sky-high confidence, it’s surprising to me how everyone is pretending he was never good on clay to begin with and that his current form is all so new. Yes, it is true that he had never made a clay final before Munich two weeks ago but the fact that he had no trophies on the surface does not mean he was rubbish on it.
Murray’s last three French Opens saw him make two semi-finals and one quarter-final. Both semis losses came to Nadal, a man who has only one loss and 66 wins there.
Just got back to the hotel after a long day! Good to see @Evo151216 got the win thanks for all the messages off to Rome manana
— Andy Murray (@andy_murray) May 10, 2015
In 2011, his Roland Garros prep included semi-finals in Monte Carlo and Rome – lost to Nadal in the former and served for the match before falling to an undefeated Djokovic in a third-set tiebreak in the latter – and he went on to make the same stage in Paris.
When I spoke to Murray in Abu Dhabi right before this season started, I asked him if he could see himself having a big result on clay in 2015 and he said he had complete belief in his chances because he has already shown how good he can be on this surface. He noted that had it not been for Nadal, he’d have much better results in Paris and the Masters 1000 clay events.
The smart thing about what Murray did this year was his choice to play Munich. Opting to compete in a small ATP 250 clay event (something he hasn’t done in the past) to kick off his French Open build-up allowed him to play against easier opposition, gather some steam and get a title out of it.
The confidence he got from that, the positive feelings he has from having just got married, and the current shakiness from Nadal all contributed to his impressive success in Madrid. He was also armed with the right tactics, attacking a sub-par Nadal forehand.
Despite the past fortnight, I still put Djokovic and Nadal as favourites in Paris ahead of Murray. Just like it’s tough to ignore Murray’s current achievements, it’s just as hard to ignore Djokovic’s current win streak and form, and Nadal’s mind-blowing record at Roland Garros.
The ranking situation
Nadal’s Roland Garros seeding fate rests on him winning Rome and Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori losing before the semi-finals. That’s the only way he can get a top-four seeding in Paris and avoid meeting the likes of Djokovic, Roger Federer or Murray in the quarter-finals there. A tall order considering the lack of feel he had in the Madrid final.
Stats of the week
12 – Nadal’s loss in Madrid marks the first time Nadal has lost four-or-more matches on clay in one season (15-4) since 2003, 12 years ago, when he was 11-6.
10 – Years since Nadal was last ranked outside the top five.
22 – Months since Murray had last beaten one of his fellow Big Four players – Nadal, Federer or Djokovic – prior to last Sunday.
Aussie, Aussie, Aussie
Nick Kyrgios’ Federer-slaying week in Madrid saw him crack the top 30 for the first time in his career. With him ranked No30 and Bernard Tomic ranked 27, there are two Australians in the top 30 for the first time since June 2004, when Lleyton Hewitt was ranked No10 and Mark Philippoussis was at No17. Add to that the fact that Thanasi Kokkinakis has just made his top 100 debut, at 98, and it’s quite the celebratory week for Australian tennis.
