The Asian Cup has turned out to be an extremely exciting affair, filled with some entertaining football and flavoured with a few upsets. Among the six groups, Group A has been the pick of the bunch when competitiveness and unpredictability is considered.
UAE were held by Bahrain in the opening day fixture and India thrashed Thailand 4-1 the next day. In the second round of fixtures, Thailand edged Bahrain 1-0, while UAE recorded their first victory of the tournament after recording a 2-0 win over India.
Group A matrix in the @afcasiancup
— Sooraj Kamath (@sooraj_kamath) January 13, 2019
UAE and India seem favourites to make it out. #IndianFootball #AsianCup2019
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The permutations for qualification to the next round is not as simple in Group A as it is for the other group. So, we decided to analyse the scenarios in this group and discuss what each team must do to qualify to the knockouts.
Note that four of the best third placed team will be qualifying apart from the top two. Given that Group C and Group D have Kyrgyzstan, Philippines, Vietnam and Yemen, who have all failed to collect a single point after two games and have recorded a poor Goal Difference (GD), the third placed team in Group A have a bright chance of qualification.
UAE
Khalfan Mubarak celebrates his goal.
UAE are favourites to top Group A, but it’s worth noting that the hosts can’t take the fixture against Thailand for granted as the War Elephants will be fighting for a win in order to qualify.
To qualify as group winners
The hosts can qualify as group winners if they beat Thailand. They can also win the group if they draw against Thailand and India fail to beat Bahrain.
To qualify as runners-up
In the scenario where UAE fail to beat Thailand and India beat Bahrain, the hosts will be qualifying as runners-up.
To qualify as one of the best third placed teams
Should Thailand and India win their games, UAE will be placed third. But four points is enough to ensure qualification as one of the best third placed teams.
Therefore, UAE have qualified for the knockouts, but their position will be determined on Monday.
INDIA
Sunil Chhetri battles with Ali Salmin.
The Blue Tigers have a great chance to progress to the next round of the Asian Cup.
To qualify as group winners
Qualifying as group winners is not in India’s hands alone. The Blue Tigers must beat Bahrain and hope that Thailand defeat UAE in order to win the group.
To qualify as runners-up
If both India and UAE win their games, India will be qualifying as runners up. Also, if UAE win their game against Thailand and India split points with Bahrain, the Blue Tigers will finish as the second placed team in the group. A draw in both the games will also lead to India qualifying as the runners-up.
To qualify as one of the best third placed team
A draw is enough for India to take them through to the next round. A defeat could also result in qualification, subject other results across all groups.
A Thailand and Bahrain win are the only combination of results that can ensure that India finishes fourth.
THAILAND
Chanathip Songrasin of Thailand
The War Elephants too have a good chance of featuring in the last 16, thanks to their narrow win over Bahrain.
To qualify as group winners
It’s unlikely that Thailand will top the group as they will have to defeat UAE to do so and hope that India don’t beat Bahrain.
To qualify as runners-up
This seems like a plausible scenario. A win each for India and Thailand would send the latter through as runners up. Should Thailand and UAE split points and Bahrain defeat India, the War Elephants will qualify as the second placed team.
To qualify as one of the best third placed team
A draw against UAE and India beating or drawing against Bahrain will mean that Thailand will qualify as one of the best third placed teams. Thailand can qualify even by losing against UAE if Bahrain don’t beat India and the results in other groups are in their favour.
Only if Thailand and India lose their respective games, will the former be eliminated from the competition with immediate effect.
BAHRAIN
Sami Mohamed Alhusaini of Bahrain in action
Bahrain’s qualification scenario is straightforward when compared to any of the other teams in the group.
To qualify as group winners
Bahrain can’t qualify as group winners.
To qualify as runners-up
Bahrain will have to defeat India and hope that UAE defeat Thailand, in order to qualify as runners-up. No other situation can ensure this.
To qualify as the best third placed team
Bahrain will have to win their game to qualify as one of the best third placed teams. The result in the other game will be immaterial.
Simply put, a draw or defeat against will eliminate Bahrain from the tournament.
