Despite the alarming loss of form which has seen them collect just one point from their last three league games, Barcelona are still in a very strong position to retain the Spanish title.
Thanks to their head-to-head advantage over Atletico and Real Madrid, Barca would lift the title by winning five of their six remaining games, and no team has ever failed to finish champions from such a position.
So the odds remain very much in Barca’s favour, and the fixture list is another reason for the Blaugranas to believe they will survive their recent wobble.
None of Barca’s six remaining games are against teams in the top half, with next weekend’s home clash against Valencia followed by meetings with Deportivo La Coruna, Sporting Gijon, Real Betis, crosstown rivals Espanyol and then a final-day date with Granada.
Chasing Atletico and Real Madrid, meanwhile, are by no means guaranteed of claiming maximum points.
Real have to face a Villarreal team who have already beaten them this season as well as a trip to Real Sociedad, whose uncanny ability to defeat the big boys at home was proven again this weekend.
True, Atletico have the benefit of playing four of their final six games at home, but one of their remaining away outings is an extremely challenging trip to Athletic Bilbao, while their last game is a banana skin against dangerous Celta Vigo, who have already knocked them out of the cup this season.
Considering, therefore, the lead which Barca already hold and the likelihood that their closest challengers will drop more points, the current estimations of bookmakers – who give the Catalans roughly a 90% chance of taking the title – are about right.
The way things stand, Barca will able to win the title in their final home game, against Espanyol in the local derby. Tasty...
— Andy West (@andywest01) April 9, 2016
Having said that, the possibility that Barca will get worse rather than better cannot be discounted, and the impact of this week’s Champions League ties will be significant in boosting or damaging morale.
At Real Madrid in particular, the repercussions of an embarrassing defeat to the lesser lights of Wolfsburg would be painful for Zinedine Zidane.
Despite only being in his job for three months, the French coach would be forced to endure intense speculation that he would be sacked in the summer – hardly the ideal circumstances to launch a long run of victories.
Real have struggled for consistency all season, sometimes appearing incapable of playing well for two consecutive games, and it’s probably unrealistic to ask them to win six on the bounce in the league when they will be either wallowing in a painful Champions League loss or facing the relentless hype of a semi-final.
Atletico, conversely, are in a better position to maintain consistency over the last few weeks of the season.
Diego Simeone’s dogged insistence upon a ‘game by game’ mentality insulates his players from emotional mood swings, demonstrated by their success in challenging on two fronts in 2014 when they won La Liga and reached the Champions League final.
Indeed, Simeone’s refusal to indulge in squad rotation for Saturday’s win at Espanyol was revealing. Whereas other managers talk the talk about focussing only on their next game, Simeone actually backs up that rhetoric by selecting his best team.
So if Barca do continue to struggle, Simeone’s even keel rather than the hysteria surrounding Real means that Atletico, not their near neighbours, pose the biggest title threat.
