Whether it was defeatist or a trick of reverse psychology, Arsene Wenger’s claim that Barcelona are “95 per cent” qualified for the quarter-finals of the Champions League seemed a little unnecessary in the wider context of Arsenal’s season.
We all know the chances of them going to the Nou Camp and scoring at least two while maintaining a two-goal advantage over the European champions is minimal, but one of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez or Neymar could get injured, or a red card in the opening 15 minutes could dramatically change the probability.
But then again the result, in a way, doesn’t matter. It’s irrelevant because even if Arsenal were to go through they’re probably not good enough to win the Champions League. Over two legs against Real Madrid, PSG, Bayern Munich, Juventus or Atletico Madrid, they probably don’t possess enough all-round quality to knock those sides out.
We saw enough evidence to support that on Tuesday. Arsenal played reasonably well but defensively, collectively and individually, they didn’t have the attributes or aptitude to stick to Wenger’s gameplan over 90 minutes, while in attack they showed they lack the class and craft of the above teams.
What they are most certainly good enough to win, though, and have the best chance of doing so, probably more so than even when they were a genuine European force in the days of Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira in full pomp, is win the Premier League title. And with roughly 12-15 games remaining, depending on cup results, momentum alongside confidence and self-belief are everything.
So, to virtually write off their chances in Catalonia was a little strange by Wenger, however he meant it. And, let’s be honest, his Arsenal sides don’t exactly have a tradition of a Roy Keane-esque reaction to such psychology.
The next two-and-a-half months represent an unbelievable opportunity for the North London club and especially Wenger. But, at the same time, failure would reflect terribly on the Frenchman.
Their last title – ‘The Invincibles’ of 2003-04 – was against the backdrop of Roman Abramovich’s millions first pouring into English football at Chelsea and Manchester United still the country’s No. 1 force, albeit one slightly in flux.
Now, 12 years later, their competitors are Leicester, who have never finished higher than eighth in the Premier League; Tottenham who are the only squad in the division with an average age under 25; and City, who have a dressing room appearing to lose interest knowing not many of them will be around next season under Pep Guardiola.
Arsenal are by far and away the most well-equipped side, while outside of City’s ragged squad, Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil, Olivier Giroud, Petr Cech all have title-winning experience at other clubs.
As former Gunners striker Alan Smith said this month, it will be deeply embarrassing for them to be pipped by Leicester. That’s not taking anything away from the Foxes’ achievement, it’s just what the overriding emotion will be in the red part of north London.
But that would be magnified 1,000 times should Spurs get over the line ahead of them. A young squad with a bright, hungry and innovative manager. It could be a turning point in the dynamic between the two clubs.
In the years since 2004, Wenger has complained Arsenal have been hamstrung by the “financial doping” of Chelsea and City. He’s claimed Sir Alex Ferguson’s manipulation of referees gave Manchester United an unfair advantage. None of those factors are in play in 2016.
They may not be good enough for the Champions League, but this is a title Arsenal simply have to win, for Wenger’s own sake alone. And they have to be 100 per cent confident of doing so.
