As Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho prepare for their 17th head-to-head confrontation Andy Gray and Richard Keys, who front beIN Sports Premier League coverage, give their verdict on who they think will emerge triumphant at Old Trafford Saturday and why.
Who do you think will win the Manchester derby?
Andy Gray: The one thing that will dictate how this match goes is how Manchester City cope without Sergio Aguero because he is the kind of player who makes a difference. His suspension is a massive blow for City because there are plenty of players City could have lost without creating a massive void in the team but Guardiola doesn’t have a like for like replacement. Kelechi Iheanacho might play up front and he has plenty of talent but he is not in Aguero’s league as a game changer just yet.
We always say football is about the players but this is all about the coaches; both hugely successful as serial title winners and yet so different in the way they want their teams to play. But one this is for sure – they both hate losing so let’s hope this match lives up to all the hype.
Out of the 16 times these two have faced each other Guardiola is on top with seven wins, compared to Mourinho’s three with six draws but those statistics are largely irrelevant because for many of those meetings Guardiola was in charge of Barcelona, the best team in the world which gave him a huge advantage.
Big loss: Sergio Aguero.
It’s too early to pass judgement on what Guardiola has done so far at City because there are players he has brought in who we haven’t seen yet but he has strengthened at the back, which was a must-do, and John Stones should prove to be a great buy. The other new faces at City are similar in that they are all small, technically talented footballers which fits with the way Guardiola likes his teams to play.
Mourinho, meanwhile, has bought more straightforward powerful, physical players into United. He has also strengthened at centre-back and in midfield and I am particularly excited by Henrikh Mkhitaryan who should prove to be a sensationally good player. I am not sure he if is fit enough to play the derby. Obviously, Paul Pogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are also brilliant signings.
That physicality will play a big role Saturday and if you want an example of what might happen you only have to look at the game between City and West Ham on August 28. During the first half West Ham stood off City and were played off the park. The second half Slavan Bilic got his team playing higher up the pitch with more intensity and suddenly the game was in the balance for a long time. I think you will see that approach from United, putting City under pressure from the first whistle and trying to dominate the game with their physical strength. They certainly won’t stand off and allow City to play.
There has been a lot of talk about whether Mourinho will start with Marcus Rashford in midfield after his hat-trick for the England U21s but I think he will stick with Anthony Martial alongside Pogba, possibly Ander Herrera and Juan Mata. If there is any vulnerability in this United team it might be at right back where Valencia is not the answer, for me. With Ibrahimovic up front and Wayne Rooney playing just behind him I think this United team looks like a pretty effective unit.
City also have bags of talent and they will hammer a lot of teams this season but they will struggle at times because they don’t really have a player in midfield who has any physical presence and up front they tend to rely too much on Aguero.
Saturday’s game will be quite tight with both team scoring, but although I can see City putting United under pressure at times, the absence of Aguero will be the decisive factor and Mourinho’s team with their physicality and home advantage will just nick it 2-1.
Richard Keys: This game has whetted the appetite of millions around the globe because it is Mourinho v Guardiola – nothing else. There have been bigger Manchester derbies when the title was a stake although this game could give us a clue about how the season might unfold for these two teams.
Andy makes a good point about the way West Ham got stuck into City in the second half of that game and with Manchester United’s height and aggression they can create plenty of problems for their neighbours particularly at set-pieces. We all know the way Guardiola likes to play football but I don’t think he can get away with City playing the Barcelona way in the Premier League.
Yes, he has excited everyone and he is undoubtedly a top coach but the Premier League is far more competitive than he is used to and I genuinely believe this match is the first real test of just how good he is, particularly as he is without the services of Aguero.
I think United will be too powerful for a City team full of small, smart players, particularly up front and in midfield. My least favourite player Marouane Fellaini has so far done well, Paul Pogba will be tough to contain and John Stones versus Zlatan Ibrahimovic? No contest! I am not convinced by Stones and I reckon he will get caught out in this game.
The one thing City do have is technically gifted players and if they are allowed to start knocking the ball around then all the inadequacies that Fellaini, for example, has could be exposed so this game is a fascinating clash of styles.
I am not particularly interested in the head-to-head stats but I think Saturday, possibly for the first time when he has faced a Guardiola team, Mourinho will be thinking that he has a better team and his intent will be to go out and win the game whereas previously his aim has mostly been to stop Guardiola’s Barcelona playing and avoiding defeat. He knows he can win this game and the power he has in this United team will ensure that is exactly what happens. 2-1.
