Why Ibra is the PL's most dangerous striker

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  • A sleeping giant: Ibrahimoivc.

    “When it won’t go in, it just won’t.”

    Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s concise analysis of Manchester United’s 0-0 draw with Burnley summed up the encounter perfectly.

    The hosts peppered Tom Heaton’s goal with a whopping 37 shots over the course of 90 minutes, the most they have managed in a Premier League game since the 2003/04 season.

    Despite their best efforts, Jose Mourinho’s side was left frustrated as the final whistle sounded and it’s no surprise that their number nine endured the brunt of the criticism following what Juan Mata described as ‘the weirdest draw’ of his career.

    After 12 shots on the night, with only four on target, the mass condemnation of the Swede isn’t unwarranted. A striker of his calibre should be scoring at least a couple given the chances he was afforded.

    The 35 year-old’s age was highlighted as a major concern when United signed him from Paris Saint-Germain this summer and that has predictably featured prominently in every argument against him during this goal drought.

    The United front man’s finishing has clearly let him down. However, those writing him off as a flop at this stage may be jumping the gun.

    As improbable as it may seem, the fact of the matter is that Ibrahimovic remains the Premier League’s most threatening player. That isn’t a matter of opinion, there’s significant statistical evidence.

    Fantasy Premier League aficionados will be familiar with the term ‘ICT Index’. That stands for Influence Creativity Threat.

    It’s a statistical feature the online game has incorporated which uses match data to help assess a player’s performance. The ‘threat’ element in that index specifically rates a player’s likeliness to score.

    threat

    Attempts at goal is understandably influential to this rating but a player’s average position and actions that are regarded as the best chances to score also contribute heavily.

    Ibrahimovic boasts the greatest threat throughout the league with a rating of 783 while top scorer Diego Costa comes closest to that figure, weighing in at 593.

    The Swede has 57 shots so far this season, 16 more than Philippe Coutinho in second. His shooting accuracy is surprisingly average as well with 35 per cent of his efforts finding the target. Sergio Aguero registers 41 per cent of his shots on target while Jermaine Defoe, lauded for his clinical finishing, has managed just 31 per cent.

    The telling difference though is that Ibrahimovic has had eight big chances from which he has failed to score. While his glaring miss from an exquisite Paul Pogba cross in the closing stages of the game on Saturday immediately comes to mind, the striker has mainly faltered by finding the keeper instead of the back of the net when presented with glorious opportunities.

    That doesn’t absolve him of his poor return but there is reason to believe that a goal-fest could be just around the corner. As with most goal droughts, one successful finish, regardless of how it comes about, could be all it takes to open the floodgates.

    What is reassuring as far as United fans are concerned is that Zlatan’s overall game has still looked good despite lacking the all-important end product. Ibrahimovic is regularly involved in the team’s attacks, often dropping deep before playing a team-mate in.

    In fact, he even leads the way in the creativity department amongst the league’s strikers with a rating of 264.8 while in-form Romelu Lukaku comes close with 240.1.

    creativity

    Ibrahimovic’s subtle contributions to United’s game surely aren’t lost on an astute observer like Mourinho, giving him reason to persist with his summer signing.

    His struggles in front of goal cannot be compared to Fernando Torres’ decline at Chelsea or Wayne Rooney’s more recent slump for that matter. Ibrahimovic’s touch hasn’t deserted him nor has his capacity to link up play masterfully.

    What has eluded him however are goals which – unfortunately for him – is what strikers live and die by. But if the overwhelming statistics are anything to go by, Ibrahimovic will be banging them in again.

    It’s only a matter of time.

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