Forget the Premier League title, the race for the top four is where it’s really at this season in England.
Written only slightly tongue in cheek, the pursuit of Champions League football next term is being fought among a collection of the usual subjects, but the very unusual nature of the 2018/19 campaign means the identity of the teams who will get the last two spots behind title-chasing duo Manchester City and Liverpool is genuinely anyone’s guess.
A few weeks ago, Tottenham were in a three-horse race for the title. Now, Saturday’s defeat at Southampton has seen them sink into the mire of the top four scrap with Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea.
The two other London clubs started the season so well – embarking on impressive unbeaten runs before the honeymoon period for Unai Emery and Maurizio Sarri was well and truly torpedoed.
Bookending it all is United’s total transformation from Jose Mourinho to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, which means the chase for those final two coveted elite European spots should go down to the wire.
Here, we assess each of the foursome’s remaining league games and predict where they will finish in the table and why they will or won’t claim a top four place:
TOTTENHAM
The return of Kane and Alli mean Spurs are back to full-strength.
Run-in: Crystal Palace H (date TBC), Liverpool A (31/3), Brighton H (7/4), Huddersfield H (13/4), Man City A (20/4), West Ham H (27/4), Bournemouth A (4/5), Everton H (12/5)
Why they will: They’ve been in the driving seat for a top four finish throughout the season – despite persistent predictions of inevitable failure, having not made any significant investment in the squad in the last two seasons.
They have arguably the league’s finest marksman – Harry Kane – back after serious injury, and the Englishman has scored in each of his three games since returning. Compatriot Dele Alli is also back in the fold and the duo form part of a fearsome front line – including Son Heung-min and Christian Eriksen – that is the most potent among this quartet of challengers. They also possess in Mauricio Pochettino one of the finest young managers in the game – equally adept in terms of tactical and man-management skills.
Why they won’t: As good as they’ve been all season, they are on the slide. The chase for the Premier League title was a three-horse race six weeks ago – yet three defeats and a draw in their last four have seen Spurs stutter.
Not only have they fallen out of title contention, they have been reeled in by the chasing pack – a win at rivals Arsenal on Sunday would have seen United go level with them in third.
There have been signs of the unflappable Pochettino imploding in recent weeks – evidenced by his referee rant after the final whistle following their 2-1 defeat at relegation-threatened Burnley – while they also have daunting trips down the stretch to Liverpool and City.
On top of this, a threadbare squad must juggle the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
Predicted points: WLDWLWWW (16) = 77
Predicted finish: 4th
ARSENAL
Arsenal will be buoyed after inflicting a first league defeat on United under Solskjaer.
Run-in: Wolves A (date TBC), Newcastle H (1/4), Everton A (7/4), Watford A (15/4), Crystal Palace H (20/4), Leicester A (29/4), Brighton H (4/5), Burnley A (12/5)
Why they will: Out of their opponents they surely have the easier run-in, which is devoid of any meetings against the other sides in the top six. Their confidence will also be sky-high after Sunday’s result against United at home, with the Emirates also something of a secret fortress, having not tasted defeat there in the league in their last 15 games, since a 2-0 defeat on opening day to Manchester City. All of which will stand them in good test heading down the home straight.
Why they won’t: Bad news for the Gunners is five of their remaining eight games are away from the Emirates and, of the top six sides in the league, Arsenal’s mental fortitude can be questioned more than any other – having dealt mostly in repeated failure for the best part of the last decade.
Arsene Wenger’s empire crumbled around him in his latter years and Unai Emery has quite the rebuilding job ahead of him in his formative years – early optimism forged via a 22-game unbeaten run has given way to familiar fears during recent, troubling times.
After 19 straight years of qualifying for the Champions League under Wenger, meanwhile, they also have failed to finish in the top four the last two seasons.
Predicted points: LWWDWLWW (16) = 76
Predicted finish: 5th
MAN UNITED
Solskjaer has transformed United’s season.
Run-in: Watford H (30/3), Wolves A (2/4), West Ham H (13/4), Everton A (21/4), Man City H (24/4), Chelsea H (28/4), Huddersfield A (4/5), Cardiff H (12/5)
Why they will: Having been a car crash under Mourinho, United have steered themselves into top four contention with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the wheel.
The Norwegian has not only lifted the players’ spirits and restored confidence, he has proved himself tactically adept and, in doing so, disproved the theory that United’s squad was a shambles under the Portuguese.
Pound for pound it is the best of the four teams gunning for the remaining two Champions League spots, and they’re in fine form.
Forget the Arsenal result – a first domestic defeat under Solskjaer – United dominated at the Emirates and, had one of a plethora of chances been taken, it could have been a very different story.
Why they won’t: Defeat was tasted at home to Paris Saint-Germain but having rectified that with a logic-defying second-leg win in France, how will a maiden loss on the home front affect momentum?
United are once again entertaining their supporters under Solskjaer, but they’re also far from watertight in defence – where makeshift right-back Ashley Young and a lack of elite stars remain a crutch.
They welcome Manchester rivals City and Chelsea to Old Trafford in the space of five days at the end of April. Add in the two-legged Champions League quarter-final in the same month as well as managing a squad ravaged with injuries of late, Solskjaer’s most stressful time could lie ahead.
Predicted points: WDWWDWWW (20) = 78
Predicted finish: 3rd
CHELSEA
Eden Hazard aside, Chelsea never seem far away from disaster.
Run-in: Brighton H (date TBC), Everton A (17/3), Cardiff A (31/3), West Ham H (8/4), Liverpool A (14/4), Burnley H (22/4), Man Utd A (28/4), Watford H (4/5), Leicester A (12/5)
Why they will: They have failed to qualify for the Champions League in two of the previous three years following periods of unrest at the end of Mourinho’s second spell and Antonio Conte’s reign.
But in terms of business end of the season pedigree there have been few better in recent campaigns – having graced Europe’s elite stage in 14 of the last 16 seasons. Chelsea were also champions of England in two of the last four campaigns.
They also have the meanest defence in England after City and Liverpool and while Arsenal and United, in-particular, have several question marks at the back, the Blues are pretty solid.
Why they won’t: Maurizio Sarri has turned a sinking, mutinous ship around in recent weeks, with the Blues unbeaten in three league games. But the supporters are certainly no fans of ‘Sarriball’ and you feel disaster or embarrassment could rear its head at the next sign of strife.
Chelsea are also a team whose form is so intrinsically linked to that of their talisman Eden Hazard and, even though he is one of the league’s finest talents, if he has an off-day, Chelsea lack inspiration.
Alvaro Morata failed alarmingly, Olivier Giroud is struggling more for minutes at Stamford Bridge than he ever did at Arsenal, and Gonzalo Higuain’s three goals in 12 games since arriving on loan from AC Milan have come in the form of a brace and a solitary strike against doomed Huddersfield and Fulham respectively. They must also travel to Liverpool and United.
Predicted points: WWWWLWLWD (19) = 76
Predicted finish: 6th
