They’ve flirted with the drop for three of the last four seasons and today is likely to see Hamburg end their 52-year status as the only founding member of the Bundesliga not to be relegated.
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In many ways that impressive statistic is emblematic of the malaise the club has been in for much of this decade, as the league titles and European Cups of the early 1980s seem light years away, whereas the fear of relegation has become a more regular emotion.
They still have an escape route as victory over Schalke plus defeat for Stuttgart and a winner from the Hannover v Freiburg match would miraculously see them finish 15th.
Tick, tock @HSV‘s race against time to keep the famous clock ticking and stay in the #Bundesliga – can they do it? pic.twitter.com/MkgQTUbXOm
— Bundesliga (@Bundesliga_EN) May 22, 2015
But while that would provide some respite for manager Bruno Labbadia and his players, from a long-term footballing perspective there is a growing feeling it will be counter-productive. That a much needed change in mentality will only occur if they are relegated.
It would be the harshest of truths, and the financial loss would be severe for a club already some €100 million (Dh404m) in debt – reports also claim the need for a budget reduction of around €50m compared to this season – while German business daily Handelsblatt has reported as many as 750 jobs within the city are tied to the club retaining their top-flight status.
But the fans, stadium and facilities will remain and with a few years of sensible and sustainable planning they can rise again as Germany is a country that rewards long-term football prudence.
Just how they got here is almost as complicated as deciphering today’s relegation permutations. This is a club last year were ranked as the 18th richest in the world by Forbes, with an average attendance of 53,000 and a expenditure of €85m (Dh340m) this season.
The latter figure gives some insight into where the bleeding began as too much has been spent on too many coaches and players with little thought for quality or consistent thought.
Labbadia is Hamburg’s fourth coach this season alone, and eighth permanent boss since 2010.
But while the club have tried to get it right – Dortmund-bound Thomas Tuchel turned them down last month – they’re victims of their own mismanagement with potential candidates once thinking, “I can be the man to make Hamburg great again” now running a mile.
2 clubs from 5 to go down automatically in the @bundesliga_de. @HSV big favourites with @SCPaderborn07 to join them: pic.twitter.com/duNUI2iaRO
— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) May 22, 2015
A failure to find a consistent presence in the dugout has subsequently impacted on the team with each new coach bringing their own ideas and methods – often deliberately in opposition to their predecessor in the hope of forcing change – leaving players confused and disenchanted.
This concept of hiring and firing managers is also only exacerbated with an over-enthusiastic transfer policy that has seen 12 new players signed this season, on top of the 10 from the previous campaign.
The exits have been equally as large in scale, but it’s noteworthy they lost both Hakan Calhanoglu and Son Heung-Min – two of the best young players in the world – to Bayer Leverkusen, a club once upon a time comfortably in their shadow.
It all adds up to a cycle of misery and perpetual dread that there seems no way out of. Maybe sometimes you have to take a step back before you can move forward.
