La Liga has been far more competitive this season compared to recent campaigns. The top teams have been made to work extremely hard for their wins and the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid have hardly breezed through fixtures.
So far, 22 games have been played and Barca find themselves perched on top of the table, with a six-point lead. Second in the league, Atetico Madrid have a two-point lead over city rivals Real although the dynamics could change dramatically this weekend after the Madrid derby.
There are 16 matches left. European engagements. Injury crises. So many variables can still come into play. We take all of this into consideration, as we attempt to predict where the current top three will end up on the final day.
BARCELONA
Current form
The Catalan giants saw there eight-game winning run come to a halt after they were held to a 2-2 draw by Valencia last week. Barca have been churning out the results, while putting on convincing performances, ever since their 1-1 draw at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Lionel Messi has been his usual, marvelous and magical self and Ousmane Dembele has taken off spectacularly since establishing himself as a starter. In midfield, Arthur has looked calm and assured, and rarely has an off-day.
In defence, Gerard Pique has been having a great season and Clement Lenglet has gelled in well with Barca’s style of play. Jordi Alba has arguably been the best full-back in the league and his role will be crucial for the league leaders. Marc-Andre Ter Stegen has been solid in goal even if he has barely been tested in recent months.
Barcelona are at an advantageous position at the top of La Liga.
European/cup engagements
February – or Hlebruary as the Barcelona faithful refer to the second month of the year as, due to the tendency of the team to dip in form at this time of the season – will be a hectic month.
The Blaugrana face Lyon in the last 16 of the Champions League and in the likely scenario that they progress, will have to endure a challenging schedule in April. There’s back to back away Clasicos lined up at the end of the month, one of which is the crucial Copa del Rey semi-final second leg against Real at the Bernabeu.
Nabil Fekir and Lyon could be a hurdle for Barcelona in the Champions League.
Remaining league fixtures
None of the teams can be underestimated in La Liga this season, but these are the top bunch of challenging fixtures lined up for Barcelona: Sevilla (A), Real Madrid (A), Real Betis (A), Atletico Madrid (H), Alaves (H).
It helps Barca that Sevilla have been in terrible form in the past few weeks. In fact, the Catalans swept aside Pablo Machin’s men 6-1 in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals last week. Ernesto Valverde’s side have a brilliant record at the Bernabeu in the last few seasons, with scorelines reading 3-0, 3-2 and 4-0, all in their favour.
Facing Betis and Atletico could be tricky. The former will be fighting for a European spot and have already shown that they can dominate and defeat Valverde’s men.
Predicted finish: Champions (84 points)
Ousmane Dembele has been in stellar form after a patchy start to the season.
ATLETICO MADRID
Current form
Atleti’s five-month long unbeaten run saw the end of day recently after Quique Setien’s Betis edged out Los Rojiblancos at the Benito Villamarin last week.
Diego Simeone’s men had their fair share of troubles in November and December when they drew a couple of games and won in the most pallid of ways. Atletico have not been particularly brilliant ever since, but that’s exactly how they play – for results.
Having said that, Atletico’s attack has been rather blunt this season and new-signing Alvaro Morata must step up and deliver without wasting much time settling in.
The midfield has had good and bad days, but there has been nothing spectacular so far. Rodri remains a standout and Atletico’s most consistent performer.
The defence has not been its usual solid self, but the fact that the entire back line was injury-ridden for a huge part of the season so far earns them a pass here.
Atleti have been able to stay in second spot despite an average attack, midfield and defence. This goes to show how brilliant Jan Oblak has been between the posts. The custodian has proved repeatedly why he’s arguably the best keeper in the league and possibly Europe.
Antoine Griezmann has been the silver lining for Atletico Madrid.
European/cup engagements
An advantage – that might not be the term Atletico fans might want to use – that Los Rojiblancos hold over their two rivals here is that they will not face fixture congestion due to domestic duties. Simeone’s men were eliminated from the Copa del Rey in the last 16 by Girona.
It’s not all sunshine though. Atletico will take on Juventus in the Champions League – a significantly tougher opponent than Lyon or Ajax. But if they do get eliminated, while Barcelona and Real progress, this could give them an advantage in April when the latter two battle on in Europe. Only time can tell.
Ronaldo returns to Madrid when Juve take on Atletico in the Champions League last 16.
Remaining league fixtures
Some of the toughest fixtures for Atletico until the end of the season include: Real Madrid (H), Athletic Bilbao (A), Alaves (A), Girona (H), Barcelona (A), Celta Vigo (H) and Sevilla (H).
Again, this set of fixtures might not be as demanding as Barca’s. But the fact that their run contains some tough away ties could play against Los Rojiblancos.
Also, Atletico play Girona, Barca and Celta Vigo in a stretch of games, so that period will be extremely crucial in determining their final position.
Predicted finish: Third (78 points)
Atletico Madrid’s season is in Jan Oblak’s hands, literally.
REAL MADRID
Current form
Santiago Solari steadied the ship at Real Madrid after a disastrous start under Julen Lopetegui. But it’s never been a smooth ride for the Argentinian either. Los Blancos started 2019 with a draw against Villareal and a defeat to Real Sociedad.
Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior stepped up for the team though and the European champions have won all four games since, seemingly turning a corner. They were the better side for large spells in Wednesday night’s 1-1 Copa del Rey semi-final first leg draw at the Camp Nou. The fact that four league victories came against quality opponents in Betis, Sevilla, Espanyol and Alaves renders it all the more impressive.
However, the midfield is still far from it’s best and needs a fix-up before the crucial stages of the season exposes its flaws. Raphael Varane has been spectacular in defence, but Sergio Ramos has had better days.
Sergio Reguilon has replaced Marcelo at the left-back position and the youngster has proved every week that this has been one of Solari’s better decisions.
Thibaut Courtois struggled during his first few weeks with Los Blancos, but the Belgian has accustomed himself to the league now and the signs of improvements are plentiful.
Madrid will be heading to the next bunch of fixtures full of confidence.
Vinicius Junior has been a bright spot for Real Madrid.
European/cup engagements
Fatigue can really play against Real in this hectic stretch. Fresh from the Clasico in the Copa del Rey, Solari’s men now turn their eyes towards the Champions League as they travel to Amsterdam to take on Ajax.
Before all that though, there is the small matter of the Madrid derby awaiting them this weekend, which only strengthens the need for more rotation. Again, further progress in Europe will set them up for a challenging April.
Can Frenkie De Jong and Co end Madrid’s Champions League monopoly?
Remaining league fixtures
Los Blancos are already in the midst of a challenging run of games, so it can only get better for them. Some of the challenging engagements ahead include: Atletico Madrid (A), Levante (A), Barcelona (H), Getafe (A) and Real Betis (H).
The teams that have been mentioned apart from the obvious two are the ones which have either convincingly defeated Madrid or lost marginally after outplaying them.
Clearly, Madrid do have an easier set of fixtures left, compared to Barcelona or their rivals across the capital. But an eight-point lead is too big to make up in Spain and European distractions will provide them with further challenges.
Karim Benzema has been revitalised for Real since Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure.
Predicted finish: Second (79 points)
