Manchester United set for logjam at centre-back but Chris Smalling, Phil Jones likely to stay

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Victor Lindelof has blossomed into United's main defender.

With Manchester United set for a second straight season without silverware, all signs point to a big summer overhaul from newly-installed manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

The Norwegian has spoken of the investment it will take to rebuild the squad so that it bridges the gap to clubs like Barcelona, who dumped United out of the Champions League this week.

While part of the rebuild will involve bringing in new players, Solskjaer and the rest of the club hierarchy will need to make cold, ruthless decisions about the ones already at the club.

Here, we look at how likely the current defenders at United are to remain at Old Trafford beyond this summer. Check out our analysis of the club’s goalkeepers, midfielders, and strikers as well.

Victor Lindelof

Victor Lindelof has emerged as United’s best defender this season, testament to his ability and determination. But is he ready to be the anchor of a side chasing major honours?

The club are all but certain to bring in at least one centre-back this summer, though perhaps the better option would be to bring in two top-class centre-backs who could help Lindelof develop without the pressure of having to perform at his best every single week as he continues to learn his trade. But the Swede is definitely not leaving the club, and may even be one of the back-up captains next season.

Likelihood of staying: 10/10

Luke Shaw

Like Lindelof, Luke Shaw has used this season to finally come good on his potential. At 23 he’s only going to improve, and if he continues on the trajectory he’s established this season he could end up being one of the best left-backs in England, if not Europe.

Of course, he still has to get better, and maybe United might bring an experienced player to help him do that. But it’s not a priority during a summer where several other positions need upgrades. And Shaw’s definitely not going anywhere.

Likelihood of staying: 10/10

Eric Bailly

The hope at United was that Eric Bailly and Lindelof would develop into the new Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand partnership, Bailly the new-age warrior defender and Lindelof the ice-cool reincarnation of Ferdinand.

But the Ivorian’s rashness and occasional deer-in-the-headlights defending have seen him fall way after a promising start to his United career. He’s not likely to leave, but he could do with learning from better defenders while he grows into his own, and that’s probably what’s going to happen as United target a new centre-back. Bailly’s personal goal next season should be to make sure he gets ahead of Chris Smalling and Phil Jones in the pecking order.

Likelihood of staying: 8/10

Diogo Dalot

Diogo Dalot has been at the club for less than a year, and though Solskjaer has been reluctant to trust the young Portugal star as a defender, he’s put in a few promising displays as a makeshift winger. Such is the way of the modern game, Dalot is a fine attacking full-back but the defensive side of his game does need some work.

United are almost certain to buy a new right-back this summer, with 33-year-old converted winger Ashley Young doing an admirable, if reluctant and unreliable job for the last few years, but Dalot will be allowed to develop at the club. Any new recruit will automatically spur the 20-year-old on to improve, but won’t push Dalot out of the club just yet.

Likelihood of staying: 10/10

Phil Jones

Usually, an inconsistent, injury-prone player who has yet to truly prove himself after seven seasons at the same club is the sort of player a manager would cut their losses on. But United handed Phil Jones a new contract in January, so are they really going to sell him in the summer?

They are set to have a logjam at centre-back. All signs point to United recruiting at least one player at the position, one who would walk into the starting XI. Lindelof has been the club’s most consistent defender this season and Bailly offers more upside than Jones at this point.

Axel Tuanzebe, a player of huge potential, will return from a season-long loan having proved his quality at Aston Villa. Even with his new contract, the Englishman is set to be a bit-part player unless he can finally sort out long-standing issues over fitness and form that have seen Jones fall well short of the now-infamous standard Sir Alex Ferguson set for him when he said the defender could become the greatest player in United’s history.

Likelihood of staying: 8/10

Chris Smalling

Like Jones, Smalling has his detractors in the game, but he has been the Red Devils’ most consistent option in the centre for a numbers of seasons. And while he is vilified by the media and United fans alike, he rarely lets United down.

Whether Ferguson expected much when buying him from Fulham in 2010 – having joined the Cottagers from non-league Maidstone – Smalling’s biggest crime seems to be the simple fact that he isn’t and won’t ever be an elite central defender. But that’s hardly his fault and, considering he’s at one of the biggest clubs in the world during their lowest ebb in three decades, he deserves far more credit than he receives.

There are days when he looks like the best defender at the club, and others when he still looks like a fish out of water. Though he’s improved in many regards, he still tends to look uncomfortable on the ball at times and isn’t the most accomplished passer, traits that have become prerequisites for the modern defender.

But again like Jones, Smalling was given a new contract in January. That makes it unlikelier that the Englishman will leave this summer. But both defenders are set to fall down the pecking order, and though they’ll be around next season don’t be surprised if it ends up being their last at the club.

Likelihood of staying: 9/10

Ashley Young

Ashley Young’s conversion from winger to full-back has finally hit the rocks as it was seemingly always destined for. There was a good three-year spell where the Englishman’s performance in defence was not just serviceable but at times, full of genuine quality.

But over the last month his form has gone – a player into his mid-30s should not be in a position of having played 40+ games for one of the biggest teams in world football, and while anyone can recover from a dip, for a player who turns 34 this summer this latest spell seems terminal.

Shaw is entrenched as the first-choice left-back and right-back is one of the positions where United are constantly being linked with several transfer targets, so it’s unlikely that Young is a starting XI player next season.

On the other hand, he was handed a new contract in January and has been installed as de facto club captain. He’s likely not going anywhere, but his role next season should be greatly reduced to being a back-up and senior figure.

Likelihood of staying: 9/10

Matteo Darmian

It’s never worked out for Matteo Darmian at United, which is a shame. He arrived as a promising defensive prospect and is set to leave, possibly for one of Italy’s biggest clubs with Inter Milan, having rarely gotten a consistent run in the side and shifted around from right-back, his natural position, to left-back to centre-back in a back three. Not the best circumstances for his development, and yet he’s been a model professional throughout.

He was linked with an exit last summer and though no move materialised, it almost certainly will this summer. A return home is the best outcome for all parties.

Likelihood of staying: 0/10

Marcos Rojo

Rojo is another defender who has struggled to stay fit and find consistency while at United, like Jones and Smalling. His rashness makes him a liability, and though his versatility – he can play at left-back as well as centre-back – is a positive trait, it might not be enough to keep him at the club beyond this season.

According to the Argentine, Solskjaer was in his ear constantly during his recovery from a long-standing injury, and he has slowly been reintegrated into the first team. But given the number of centre-backs already at the club and at least one new player joining, it’s hard to see how Rojo has a future at United beyond the end of this season. At best he could be kept on as a back-up left-back, but an exit is more likely.

Likelihood of staying: 3/10

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Statistical analysis of Man United under Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer

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At the end of week 34 in the Premier League, Manchester United find themselves out of the Champions League spots and in sixth position in the table.

They are two points off Arsenal and Chelsea, with Unai Emery’s men claiming the fourth spot due to a superior goal difference.

Before Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over as interim boss, United were further adrift from the top-four. Jose Mourinho’s United were also in sixth place before he got the sack, but fourth placed Chelsea were then 11 points clear off the Red Devils.

With both managers having managed the team for 17 games, this is a good time for a statistical analysis of how the team fared under the two managers.

SOLSKJAER HAS A POINT

Firstly, the Red Devils have amassed 12 more points under Solskjaer than they did under Mourinho. They achieved this by registering a superior goal difference (+15).

Under the Portuguese, United scored 29 and found 29 replies.

The 29 goals that were scored under Mourinho came at an xG (expected goals) of 28.22. This means that the goal-scorers did justice to all the chances that were created for them.

On the other hand, Solskjaer’s United scored 34 goals at an xG of just 24.98. Clearly, the goal-scorers have been more clinical in front of goal in the second half of the season.

The attack has stepped up significantly, but the manner in which the defence has slowly gotten into shape is worth noting.

Under Mourinho, they conceded 29 goals when xGA (expected goals against) data suggests they should have conceded about 26 goals. However, in the next 17 games, they have recorded an xGA of just 19.65.

The significant decline is evidence that the defence is not allowing the opposition to take shots from more promising areas.

The fact that they have conceded just 19 while doing so shows that goalkeeper David De Gea has had a better time under Solskjaer when compared to his time under Mourinho this season.

We had earlier used xPTS (expected points) to analyse the luck factor in Borussia Dortmund’s season. A similar approach shows that Solskjaer has had his share of luck, too.

In the first 17 games, xPTS data says that United should have bagged 23.92 (or 24) points. But in reality, they managed to pick up 26 points, with ‘luck’ accounting for the two points.

It could be worse, @manchesterunited fans. You could still have Mourinho 😬

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The luck factor was further enhanced under Solskjaer, with United garnering 38 points against an expected 31.71 (or 32) points. It’s fair to say that the Red Devils have their fortunes to thank for, for about six of the 38 points.

The numbers have laid it down clearly – United are more polished in attack and sturdier in defence under Solskjaer.

Regardless of the league position and the fact that they are slowly withering down, Solskjaer has significantly lifted United and steadied the ship.

PLAYER POWER

Needless to say, the performance of the players has improved even at an individual level. Scoring at a rate of 0.59 goals per 90 minutes, Paul Pogba has been one of the most improved players under Solskjaer.

In the first 17 games, Pogba was scoring at a rate of just 0.24 goals every 90 minutes. An argument could be made for how most of his goals have come from the spot.

However, it does not take away the extent of his resurgence.

The quantity and quality of chances created by the Frenchman every game should serve as evidence as to why his revival under Solskjaer is real and not just a smokescreen. While he used to average 1.42 key passes every 90 minutes under the Portuguese manager, he has taken it up a notch, producing 1.9 key passes every game under the new manager.

The fact that he has pumped up his xA90 (expected assist per 90 minutes) from 0.12 under Mourinho to 0.21 under Solskjaer shows that the quality of the chances he creates has also gone up significantly.

Rashford is another player who has levelled up under Solskjaer. His scoring rate has increased from 0.32 to 0.54 goals per 90 minutes with the change in manager.

The Englishman’s playmaking abilities have also seen a rise under the Norwegian manager. He now averages an xA90 of 0.24 per 90 minutes, 0.1 more than he used to under Mourinho.

The immediate reaction to that stat would be to check if he has been playing a deeper role and involving himself in build-up more often. Sure enough, Rashford’s xGBuildup90 (a measure of his role in build-up play) has increased by more than 100 percent from 0.11 to 0.28.

United have now lost six of their last eight games in all competitions, but the data here shows how Solskjaer has clearly out-performed Mourinho and has also succeeded in bringing out more from two of the best outfield players of the club.

Solskjaer is on the right path, he just needs time and a players of higher quality.

Stats from understat.com

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Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial on path to stardom but one has more secure Man United future

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Are Rashford and Martial still on the path to superstardom?

With Manchester United set for a second straight season without silverware, all signs point to a big summer overhaul from newly-installed manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

The Norwegian has spoken of the investment it will take to rebuild the squad so that it bridges the gap to clubs like Barcelona, who dumped United out of the Champions League this week.

While part of the rebuild will involve bringing in new players, Solskjaer and the rest of the club hierarchy will need to make cold, ruthless decisions about the ones already at the club.

Here, we look at how likely the current strikers at United are to remain at Old Trafford beyond this summer. Check out our analysis of the club’s goalkeepers, defenders, and midfielders as well.

Marcus Rashford

The only thing that could see Marcus Rashford leave his boyhood club is if the potential impasse during contract negotiations becomes reality. Rashford is reportedly seeking a new deal worth £200,000 per week, a wage United may feel the player hasn’t quite earned yet.

And whatever happens they are in the market for forward options this summer, which could see Rashford’s playing time reduced. His composure and finishing remain issues but, at 21, he still has time to iron those out, and Solskjaer admires the young Englishman. His combination of talent and determination should help him remain a fixture at United for the years to come.

Likelihood of staying: 10/10

Anthony Martial

Between Rashford and Anthony Martial, the Frenchman is arguably the more talented player. There’s a reason United agreed to a Ballon d’Or clause in his transfer when making him the then-most expensive teenager in history upon signing him from Monaco in 2015.

Yet there’s also a feeling that Rashford applies himself better and has less of a tendency to go missing in games. The impression that he is permanently sulking, like a new-age Nicolas Anelka, doesn’t help, though even the original Le Sulk ended up being an excellent striker. If Martial can focus on harnessing his potential in a similar way, United will reap the benefits.

Likelihood of staying: 8/10

Alexis Sanchez

Alexis Sanchez’s gravest sin as a United player may not be his failure to have any lasting impact, as injuries and a decline in form have reduced him to a frustrating, ineffective footballer. No, the bigger concern is the wages he’s on, which depending on reports are anything between £350,000 and £400,000 per week.

He is United’s highest-paid player by far, which makes negotiations almost impossible with those of his team-mates, like David De Gea and Paul Pogba, who think that status should reside with them. What that means is even if Sanchez does find form, and that already looks like a huge if, he still would be the player who blew up United’s wage structure and made every player demand more money  – perhaps more than United could afford.

Compounding the issue, the Chilean’s wages also make him difficult to sell. And in any case, he’s a 30-year-old who looks like his best form is behind him, which might deter suitors. United will no doubt be trying to cut their losses this summer.

Likelihood of staying: 4/10

Romelu Lukaku

Lukaku had the best season of his career in his debut campaign at United, then went to the World Cup and was one of Belgium’s most important players, and then got struck by second-season syndrome at the club. He’s had two separate runs of six games without a goal, another eight-game goalless streak, and currently hasn’t scored in his last five.

When Solskjaer replaced Mourinho he instantly returned the club to playing with traditional pace and incision and Lukaku – who’d bulked up over the summer – simply looked too clunky and static. He has slimmed down in the last few months and shown flashes of the powerful, pacey and prodigious finisher from his Everton days, but he’s just so streaky, that you wonder whether he can really become an iconic United striker.

On the face of it, 15 goals and three assists isn’t an awful campaign, and there’s still the possibility that he ends this season having topped 20 goals for the second straight campaign.

But whether he fits into Solskjaer’s hard-working, high-pressing, quick-breaking style remains to be seen, and Lukaku himself has hinted at an exit, though not necessarily an immediate one. United are also being linked with other strikers.

Likelihood of staying: 6/10

Jesse Lingard

It’s still hard to know what to make of Lingard. At times there are flashes of real quality, with his movement, ability to press, and penchant for a flashy finish. Not to mention his clear love for the club, his local ties, fun personality and status as the club’s ultimate wind-up merchant, all of which make him a fan favourite.

But compared to the best players at his position, Lingard falls short. He doesn’t produce consistently enough and has a tendency to drift in and out of games. He’s 26, which means in theory he’s about to hit his prime – but there is a sense that the current version of Lingard is the best he’ll ever be.

And if he’s already hit his ceiling, then he’s at best a squad player, not someone who should be starting every week for a side chasing major honours. There’s no danger of a summer exit, but United need an upgrade at his position.

Likelihood of staying: 10/10

Juan Mata

That the man who arrived as a club-record signing is likely to leave on a free transfer shows how poorly United have managed their transfers and contracts in the last six seasons.

Never fleet of foot, the diminutive Spaniard has always relied on his sharpness of thought throughout his career. But even the 30-year-old’s brain seems to have slowed this season as games tend to pass him by all too often. It’s a shame because he’s a great role model for United on and off the pitch and has scored more than his fair share of crucial goals – 44 in 216 games for United.

In truth Mata never seemed like a natural fit at the club and though he has done his best to adapt, and endeared himself to the fans, these are set to be his last months at the club until his post-playing career, when United reportedly have him lined up as a club ambassador.

Likelihood of staying: 1/10

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