A deep dive into what is going on with Liverpool superstar Mohamed Salah

Using a combination of WhoScored.com, Understat.com, SofaScore.com and PremierLeague.com statistics for the top flight, we delve into the issue.

WHAT HE’S DOING

A naked look at the EPL numbers, unavoidably, points to a drop in Salah’s output.

The Egypt forward has 17 goals and seven assists in 31 top-flight run-outs this term. He ended 2017/18 on 32 goals and 10 assists from 36 appearances.

Looking at his two campaigns on Merseyside, the 26-year-old is averaging more minutes per goal (156.4 in 2018/19 – 92.3 in 2017/18) and assist (379.9 in 2018/19 – 295.4 in 2017/18) this season when juxtaposed to his record-breaking debut.

He is also having less shots per 90 minutes (3.5 in 2018/19 – 4.4 in 2017/18) and is getting into fewer advantageous positions, as adjudged by a decline in expected goals per 90 minutes (0.62 in 2018/19 – 0.77 in 2017/18).

This latest pair of statistics play into a perceived conservative streak being applied by Klopp during 2018/19. But is this trope true about the German?

Liverpool’s goals per game has, actually, marginally improved this term (2.26 in 2018/19 – 2.21 in 2017/18), with the disparity for big chances created per game negligible (1.97 in 2018/19 – 2.05 in 2017/18).

The Reds have already levelled 2017/18’s tally of 17 clean sheets. It will also take some collapse to match last term’s concession of 38 goals – their present count is just 18 with seven dates to fulfil.

Beyond any tactical tweak, a full season of imperious Netherlands centre-back Virgil van Dijk, plus last summer’s then world-record addition of Brazil No1 Alisson, are major contributors to this new solidity.

Salah is averaging slightly more tackles per game (0.5 in 2018/19 – 0.3 in 2017/18), but his interceptions per match is the same (0.1). This does not point to a fresh burden of defensive duties.

Intriguingly, Salah’s key passes per 90 minutes (1.90 in 2018/19 – 1.89 in 2017/18) and expected assists per 90 minutes (0.29 in 2018/19 – 0.25 in 2017/18) have remained, broadly, static. This contradicts a narrative about growing greed.

COMPETING FACTORS

From the right wing, Salah strikes fear into all opponents.

Left-backs in the Premier League, however, have been able to rest easier this season.

In 2017/18, Klopp utilised a 4-3-3 formation for 30 of the Reds’ 38 fixtures. On the four occasions he used a 4-2-3-1, Brazil striker Roberto Firmino was usually up top.

A notable tactical change has occurred this term. 4-3-3 (17 matches) has stayed in favour, but less markedly when compared to 4-2-3-1 (11 matches).

When the 4-2-3-1 has been used in 2018/19, Salah has largely been the spearhead with Firmino dropping back into a No10 position.

This subtle alteration has multiplied the amount of times the €39 million signing from Roma in June 2017 has, directly, had two centre-backs to deal with rather than one left-back. Furthermore, such a role has put an increased onus on hold-up play and performing with back to goal.

If 2017/18 at Liverpool turned into getting the best out of a singular, stellar component in Salah, 2018/19 has been about the collective.

Salah scored 38.1 per cent of their EPL goals then. Firmino notched 17.9 per cent and Senegal forward Mane registered 11.9 per cent.

Salah and Mane have each contributed 24.3 per cent this term, while Firmino’s sat on 15.7 per cent.

Salah’s standing has necessitated the increased use of double markers on him in 2018/19. This has hampered his offensive impact, while granting renewed space for the likes of Mane.

The attacker’s movement, furthermore, has been regularly selfless.  He twice dragged the Arsenal defence apart for Firmino’s goals from open play in December’s 5-1 demolition of Arsenal.

A similar trick granted Mane his first strike in this month’s 4-2 triumph against Burnley.

Salah’s failure to pass to the same player when clean through at Bayern Munich in last week’s Champions League round-of-16 decider grabbed attention, but isn’t explanatory of his play at large.

Confidence must also be a factor – and only Salah, himself, can elucidate his frame of mind.

A shooting accuracy of 47 per cent in 2017/18 delivered 32 goals. In 2018/19, a rise to 49 per cent has, only, produced 17 strikes – to date.

For an isolated – but illustrative – example, a trademark curled shot flew into the grateful arms of Everton’s Jordan Pickford in the centre of his goal during this month’s drab scoreless draw.

In 2017/18, he pirouetted past left-back Cuco Martina, held off defensive midfielder Idrissa Gueye and, surging with belief, placed an unstoppable shot into Pickford’s top corner to earn the FIFA Puskas Award for best goal.

An element of fortune has also deserted Salah this term.  Moments to match February 2018’s double implosion from the Tottenham Hotspur defence, gifts gratefully accepted and ruthlessly dispatched, plus Manchester City shot stopper Ederson’s unwitting assist a month prior, have been rare.

Fine margins. But they have, seemingly, started going against Salah more frequently.

WHAT THEY SAY

Even within the Reds ranks, dissatisfaction has been voiced.

Former defender Jamie Carragher, who made 737 appearances for them from 1996-2013, reacted on Sky Sports to Salah’s display in Sunday’s 2-1 win at Fulham by saying: “He has been selfish and greedy, no doubt. His record for Liverpool has been outstanding in the Premier League – scoring and creating goals.

“Nobody has been involved in more goals this season, he’s been a constant threat. But two or three times today he’s got to get his head up and see what’s around him.”

Predictably, Klopp has remained sanguine.

“It’s our life, sometimes you score and sometimes not,” the German told beIN Sports after the Fulham trip. “It is completely normal and any striker could face a situation like that.

“I am completely happy with his performance with the team.”

Ahead of the Bayern clash, home goalkeeper Manuel Neuer also spoke of Salah’s enduring menace and fear he sparks.

‘Because he only scores one in the last eight doesn’t mean anything,” he stated.

CONCLUSION

Salah is scoring less goals and getting fewer assists per minute in the EPL during 2018/19.

History is also against him. Since the top-flight’s inauguration in 1992/93, only Alan Shearer (1995/96), Cristiano Ronaldo (2007/08) and Luis Suarez (2013/14) had managed to notch 31 times in a 38-game season before he surpassed them.

What he summoned in 2017/18 is an outlier. For context, Salah’s combined tally of goals and assists for 2018/19 is the joint best at 24.

The Egyptian’s present barren run is bothersome, while he’s increasingly deployed in a manner that stymies his individual threat.

Liverpool, however, last season finished 25 points behind runaway champions Man City in fourth. They now sit first, with a two-point advantage – albeit having played one more match – over the holders.

At the 31-game mark of the previous campaign, Liverpool had 63 points in third and Salah had 28 goals. Fast forward to today and they lead on 76 points, with Salah scoring on 17 occasions.

Salah’s numerical return is weaker. Liverpool’s collective, however, is unquestionably stronger.

No matter the rising scrutiny, he continues to play an enormous role in a season that promises so much.