Struggling to figure out which transfers could happen and which seem like they’ve come straight out of Football Manager? The silly season is in full flow ahead of the summer transfer window. We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
ALEXANDRE LACAZETTE
RUMOUR: Arsenal -> £70m -> Barcelona
Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has responded to reports from Spanish and English media from a week ago by claiming he is flattered by interest from Barcelona, Marca claims.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN:
Barcelona need a striker and they’re casting their net far and wide. Luka Jovic was rumoured to be the top target as a replacement for Luis Suarez, but the Eintracht Frankfurt man seems destined for a move to Real Madrid, forcing Barca to look elsewhere.
Lacazette wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize. He’s content at Arsenal, but he doesn’t start every game and, more crucially, he continues to get looked over for national team selection. Performing at Barcelona would help his case. He’d be a good fit at the Catalan club, with his movement and vision making him an ideal foil for Lionel Messi.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN:
Lacazette is too important to Arsenal. His return of 13 league goals this season may have been his lowest return in a domestic campaign since 2012/13, but he is still a key part of Unai Emery’s team, as Lacazette’s partnership with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has led Arsenal’s attack. He was also just named the club’s player of the season, so he knows he’s appreciated. Arsenal wouldn’t want to let him leave.
TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 5/10
MATTHIJS DE LIGT
RUMOUR: Ajax -> £75m -> Liverpool
According to Mundo Deportivo, Barcelona are worried that Liverpool could hijack their move for Matthijs de Ligt, after a switch from Ajax to Spain looked all but confirmed for most of this season.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN:
Barcelona may seem like a dream destination but the club is destined for a summer of upheaval – possibly not the best time to join. Liverpool, meanwhile, have reached the Champions League final two years in a row and have just completed a stellar Premier League campaign, even if they fell short of winning the title. Plus, the idea of playing alongside compatriot Virgil van Dijk should appeal to De Ligt, given the partnership the two have struck up for the Netherlands.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN:
Much of the talk around De Ligt’s potential destination seems to have sprung up purely because Barcelona haven’t sealed the deal yet like they did with the defender’s team-mate, Frenkie de Jong, who was announced in January. But while this particular transfer is taking more time, the La Liga champions have long been the front-runners, and there have been several hints from the player himself that his heart is set on a move to Barcelona. A late change seems unlikely.
TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 4/10
DAVID DE GEA
RUMOUR: Manchester United -> £60m -> PSG
Canal+ reporter Geoffroy Garetier says Paris Saint-Germain will be in for the Manchester United goalkeeper this summer, as he would be an upgrade on Gianluigi Buffon and Alphonse Areola.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN:
A turbulent season for both club and player has come to an unsatisfying end, as United have missed out on Champions League football and De Gea has seen his stock fall. At 28 he probably has little appetite for being part of a rebuild, so a team that can compete for major honours would appeal to him.
Contract negotiations have remained stalled between the two sides and though the club would be loathe to see their standout player of the six seasons leave, with De Gea entering the final year of his current deal a substantial bid might be enough to see his eight-year stay at United come to an end.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN:
Even with only a year left on his contract, De Gea isn’t leaving for anything less than a world-record fee, despite the poor season he’s had by his standards. £60million probably wouldn’t be enough to even bring United to the table. And for the club, tying their star goalkeeper down to a long-term contract is priority no. 1 this summer.
TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 6/10
