Transfer predictor: Gareth Bale to Man United is a 3, Leon Bailey to Chelsea just a 2

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  • Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

    We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.

    Today’s edition features potential signings for Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Chelsea.

    GARETH BALE

    0519 Gareth Bale

    RUMOUR: Real Madrid -> Loan -> Manchester United

    United are prepared to take the unwanted Wales forward on loan and attract Madrid by taking him off their wage bill, according to the Daily Mirror.

    WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: Madrid are desperate to get rid of their exorbitantly well-paid winger. The market for a £75 million permanent sale at such intimidating cost, for a 29-year-old riddled by injury, is small. A pragmatic temporary deal then, through necessity, could make sense. This lessens the gamble for United ahead of another summer rebuild.

    WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Bale has reportedly made it clear to Los Blancos he has zero intention of ending his six-year stint, no matter head coach Zinedine Zidane’s malevolent intentions towards him. In this context, would he be prepared to drop out of the Champions League? Also, United are meant to be targeting emerging British talent. Painful memories of how poorly Colombia striker Radamel Falcao fared on loan should also be fresh.

    TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 3/10

    LUCAS VAZQUEZ

    Vazquez

    RUMOUR: Real Madrid -> €30m -> Inter Milan

    The Spain winger has emerged as an alternative option to bolster Antonio Conte’s revamp at the San Siro, according to Sky Sport Italia.

    WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: Vazquez’s diligence, energy and discipline make him an obvious pick for Conte. Madrid must make some sales to supplement their extensive – and expensive – summer refit. The acquisitions of Rodrygo, Luka Jovic and Eden Hazard make Vazquez expendable.

    WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Inter’s clear first choice for the right wing-back position in Conte’s preferred 3-4-3 formation is Hertha Berlin and Austria’s Valentino Lazaro. He is also both younger and cheaper. For Madrid’s behalf, Vazquez remains a solid back-up option. They would rather sell persona non grata Bale than get rid of him.

    TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 6/10

    LEON BAILEY

    BeFunky-collage (5)

    RUMOUR: Bayer Leverkusen -> £80 million -> Chelsea

    Chelsea have rekindled interest in the Jamaica-born forward and plan to swoop if their transfer ban appeal is successful, according to the Daily Mail.

    WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: The Blues are in the market for attacking options after they reluctantly allowed Hazard to fulfil his dream of moving to Madrid. They’ve already raided the Bundesliga for Borussia Dortmund’s Christian Pulisic and a similar switch could be in the offing. Bailey was a shining starlet in 2017/18 – with nine goals and six assists in 30 top-flight run-outs – and his youth at 21-years old will appeal.

    WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: A cloud covers Stamford Bridge as they await the outcome of their verdict to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which if unsuccessful will preclude them from signing any new players over the age of 16 this summer or in January 2020. Even if this avenue works, Bailey’s level dropped in 2018/19. Bayer are also in no rush to sell after Julian Brandt exited for BVB, meaning their sizeable price tag might make little financial sense for the now cost-conscious Chelsea.

    TRANSFER PREDICTOR: 2/10

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