Transfer predictor: Jan Oblak to Man United is a 3, Nicolo Barella to AC Milan a 6

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  • Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

    We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.

    Today’s edition features potential signings for Manchester United, Benfica and AC Milan.

    JAN OBLAK

    BeFunky-collage (1)

    Atletico Madrid -> €120m -> Manchester United

    Broken promises about the future at Atleti have forced the boyhood United fan to consider a world-record move away, according to ESPN.

    WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: The Slovenia goalkeeper has publically voiced dissatisfaction about the talent drain at Wanda Metropolitano. An exit is, potentially, offered by the uncertainty that surrounds current Red Devils No1 David de Gea. If a new contract cannot be agreed and a summer exit to Paris Saint-Germain – also suitors for Oblak – follows, then they couldn’t select a better successor. Oblak’s affinity to the club also means a lack of Champions League football doesn’t matter, while the presence of a release clause makes the switch less complicated.

    WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Unless De Gea departs this summer, the move will not occur. There is still hope that his stay will extend into a ninth year. United also have plenty of work to do in the market, meaning even they might not be able to allocate much cash to secure Oblak.

    Transfer rating: 3/10

    RAUL DE TOMAS

    BeFunky-collage (3)

    Real Madrid -> €20m -> Benfica

    Impressive form on loan at Rayo Vallecano has seen the optimistic Portuguese champions come forward with a bid that is below Madrid’s valuation, according to MARCA.

    WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: For all the cocksure De Tomas’ impressive exploits at the relegated Madrid minnow, he was La Liga’s joint-third highest-scoring Spaniard in 2018/19, there seems few prospects for success at Santiago Bernabeu. With Eden Hazard, Rodrygo and Luka Jovic joining the long queue in front of him, a quick sale should appeal. Benfica offer Champions League exposure, solid links with Madrid president Florentino Perez and a platform to shine.

    WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Benfica remain €20m short of Madrid’s valuation. To meet it, they’d need to almost double their transfer record. Competing interest from great rivals Porto, as reported by A Bola, has further complicated matters. It would also not be a great surprise if richer clubs from the Premier League and elsewhere in La Liga were to get involved in an auction.

    Transfer rating: 5/10

    NICOLO BARELLA

    BeFunky-collage (2)

    Cagliari -> €50m -> AC Milan

    A last-minute interjection by AC Milan for the emerging Italy midfielder appears to be threatening Inter’s efforts when a deal appeared certain, according to Gazzetta dello Sport.

    WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: A failure by the Nerazzurri to nail down a transfer fee and wages for the 22-year-old has opened up a window of opportunity. Milan are reported to be open to sending striker Patrick Cutrone, plus cash, the way of the Sardinians to tempt them. With Tiemoue Bakayoko expected to head back to Chelsea and a desire emerging to cash-in on Franck Kessie, there is space to fill in the Rossoneri XI.

    WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Inter can offer access to the Champions League and are less encumbered by Financial Fair Play obligations. The opportunity to work under Antonio Conte must appeal, while Milan are currently managerless. Barella is also a boyhood Inter supporter.

    Transfer rating: 6/10

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