Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Joao Felix
Benfica -> €120 million -> Atletico Madrid
Manchester United and Manchester City target Joao Felix could join Atletico Madrid for a fee of €120 million, according to AS.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
Atletico are in need of a marquee signing in the attacking department with Antoine Griezmann set to leave the club. In Felix, they can capture one of the biggest talents in Europe and this transfer can comfortably be covered by the Frenchman’s sale.
The Spanish club is known for grooming young forwards, as evidenced by the development of Fernando Torres and Sergio Aguero. With guaranteed minutes, this could be the most suitable club for young Felix.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Both Manchester clubs are financially superior and in a position to offer Felix lucrative incentives.
City are a team positioned well to challenge for European trophies after achieving domestic domination. These factors and the prospect of playing under Pep Guardiola could provide City the edge in this tussle.
Transfer rating: 6/10
Yannick Carrasco
Yannick Carrasco
Dalian Yifang-> £25 million -> Arsenal
After a loan move failed to materialise in January, Dalian Yifang winger Yannick Carrasco could move to Arsenal on a permanent deal, according to Italian publication Sport Mediaset.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
The player revealed in an interview that he intends to return to Europe to stay close to his family. Given there’s no reported interest from any other top club, this could be a direct indication that the Belgian will soon be a Gunner.
Unai Emery’s side are in need of a winger while Carrasco can also play more centrally, thus bringing a lot to the table.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Arsenal are yet to agree on a transfer fee and it’s unlikely that the Chinese outfit will budge from their £25 million valuation of the former Atletico man.
Given their low transfer budget, it’s possible that Arsenal pull out and look for a cheaper alternative.
Transfer predictor: 8/10
Dejan Lovren
Liverpool -> undisclosed -> AC Milan
AC Milan are said to have targeted Champions League winner Dejan Lovren as they attempt a squad rebuild ahead of the 2019/20 season. No talks have been held yet, but Gianluca Di Marzio reported that the Italian club are ready to splash money in the summer window.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN
Lovren is fourth in the pecking order at Liverpool, with Joel Matip earning rights for third-choice centre-back. The Croatian has played three major finals in the last two years – two Champions League and one World Cup.
A player with his CV deserves more playing time and Milan can provide him just that. Lovren’s experience could earn him the untouchable status in Milan’s starting line-up, providing him a key role in their rebuild.
WHY IT CAN’T HAPPEN
Although this move seems logical, it’s too early to tell. Di Marzio is the only journalist to have reported this and with complications regarding transfer fee, player wages and contract length, there is still a lot of work to be done for this transfer to materialise.
Transfer rating: 4/10
