Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season?
We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Today’s edition features a possible departure from the Santiago Bernabeu, are the Gunners set to pull the trigger on a transfer and could a World Cup winner be heading home?
JAMES RODRIGUEZ
Real Madrid -> Loan -> Napoli
Napoli and Real Madrid have agreed a loan fee for James Rodriguez, but haven’t reached a deal for an option to retain the Colombian international permanently, according to Tuttonapoli.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN: Rodriguez remains a hot commodity at 27, and will definitely be on the move this summer. He looked sharp as Colombia opened their 2019 Copa America campaign with a 2-0 win over Argentina on Saturday and another stellar summer could see suitors line up once again.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Although Naples is a solid landing spot, bigger clubs could yet come in for the Colombia creator in chief, especially if he takes his country deep in Brazil. Real and the Partenopei may well be locked in talks but are said to be some way off an agreement.
The Serie A club will acquire the player for €10m on a season long loan, but Madrid are holding out for €40m to make the switch permanent. Napoli have offered only €30m.
Transfer predictor: 5/10
HAKIM ZIYECH
Ajax -> £30m -> Arsenal
Dutch journalist Marcel van der Kraan revealed on Sky Sports’ Transfer Window podcast (via talkSPORT) that the player fancies a move to the Gunners.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN: The player appears open to a move to the Emirates, and it looks a certainty that the Morocco magician will leave Amsterdam this summer. Unlike most players in his situation, Ziyech doesn’t appear to simply be looking for a big payday and wants to continue playing for a club who have a clear philosophy.
With Arsenal also open to selling Mesut Ozil – plus any fee for the German would go to bolster a transfer pot said to be a measly £45m – Ziyech is exactly the sort of creative genius the Gunners require.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Arsenal are not the only club who covet Ziyech. Liverpool are known to be long-term admirers, as are Roma, while Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf report the 26-year-old has received offers from clubs in Germany and Spain too.
It is also understood that Ozil has no intention of being forced out of north London – especially as he has two years remaining on a £350,000-a-week deal.
Transfer predictor: 6/10
MATS HUMMELS
Bayern Munich -> €20m -> Borussia Dortmund
A deal is already believed to be in the final stages to send the German World Cup-winner back to Dortmund, according to www.bavarianfootballworks.com via Bild.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN: Dortmund must go again after blowing their biggest chance in years to end Bayern’s Bundesliga dominance – and the return of former hero Hummels would certainly energise the club’s fans.
Niklas Sule is a guaranteed starter in Bavaria, while new signing Lucas Hernandez seems certain to take Hummels’ place. He is on the wane but the 2014 World Cup champion also remains a rock – and defensive solidity is something BVB desperately desire.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: This appears as close to a done deal as possible. Dortmund want him and Bayern head coach Niko Kovac has apparently given the move the green light while on vacation.
Transfer predictor: 9/10
