Transfer predictor: Lucas Torreira's reunion with Marco Giampaolo at AC Milan gets a 5

Sooraj Kamath - Writer 11:13 17/06/2019
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Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.

Today’s edition features potential signings for Atletico Madrid, AC Milan and Lyon.

BRUNO FERNANDES

Bruno

Sporting -> €50 million (+ bonuses) -> Atletico Madrid

Calciomercato reported that Atletico Madrid are chasing the highly sought-after Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes. Portuguese outlet A Bola suggests the Spanish club have made a €50 million plus bonuses offer to Sporting.

WHY IT WILL HAPPEN:

Atletico are in need of a squad revamp and, in Fernandes, they have found a player who is reportedly liked by manager Diego Simeone. The fact that the Madrid club are willing to go heavy on him is testament to their conviction in acquiring the player.

With the Argentine’s hunches on young players usually bearing fruit, it’s more than likely that the midfielder will flourish at Atletico.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN:

Atletico are offloading heavily and with a huge cash influx, the transfer fee is unlikely to cause any harm to this transfer.

But Fernandes is closely followed by other top clubs like Manchester United, Tottenham, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain. The latter two could provide the youngster with a far superior financial offer. Atletico need to act quick.

Transfer rating: 6/10

FILIPE LUIS

20190330- Vitoria alaves vs at madrid FOTO: JUAN MANUEL SERRANO ARCE

Atletico Madrid -> free transfer -> Lyon

French club Lyon could rope in Atletico Madrid veteran Filipe Luis as a quick fix after losing left-back Ferland Mendy to Real Madrid, according to L’Equipe.

WHY IT WILL HAPPEN:

At 33, it’s unlikely the Brazilian will be the first choice left-back at a club like Atletico next season. Luis was previously linked to Barcelona to play second fiddle to Jordi Alba, but the prospect of more minutes at Lyon could sway the odds in the French side’s favour.

The absence of a transfer fee also removes half the complications surrounding the transfer.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN:

The defender admitted to Marca recently that he is still unsure of his future. Luis has not ruled out extending with Atletico, has admitted that the club is in his heart and he is currently happy at the club.

The veteran is unwilling to negotiate until the Copa America concludes and a lot can happen before that, including the arrival of new suitors. Lyon have just begun negotiations and there is a long way to go before this move is finalised.

Transfer predictor: 5/10

LUCAS TORREIRA

Lucas Torreira

Arsenal -> €50 million -> AC Milan

Arsenal midfielder Lucas Torreira is tipped to make a return to Serie A with AC Milan preparing a bid for the Uruguayan, according to Corriere dello Sport.

WHY IT WILL HAPPEN:

The player admitted in an interview recently that the language barrier has prevented him from feeling at home in north London, hence hinting at a move away from Arsenal.

Torreira has already worked with incoming Milan manager Marco Giampaolo during the pair’s time together at Sampdoria. The midfielder could be tempted at the prospect of returning to familiar territory, should Milan make this a priority in the transfer window.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN:

The negotiations could be very complicated for this move. Reports suggest that Milan could approach Arsenal with an offer that also includes a swap involving Ivorian Franck Kessie. The midfielder is valued at about €30 million which means this could be a cash plus swap deal.

However, there are no suggestions that Arsenal are interested in Kessie or if they are looking to offload Torreira. The Uruguayan was one of their best players last season and the club could go to lengths in order to keep him.

Transfer rating: 5/10

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Transfer Predictor: Mats Hummels to Borussia Dortmund scores a 9, Hakim Ziyech to Arsenal gets a 6

Matt Jones - Editor 12:45 16/06/2019
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Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season?

We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.

Today’s edition features a possible departure from the Santiago Bernabeu, are the Gunners set to pull the trigger on a transfer and could a World Cup winner be heading home?

JAMES RODRIGUEZ

James-Rodriguez-Real-Madrid

Real Madrid -> Loan -> Napoli

Napoli and Real Madrid have agreed a loan fee for James Rodriguez, but haven’t reached a deal for an option to retain the Colombian international permanently, according to Tuttonapoli.

WHY IT CAN HAPPEN: Rodriguez remains a hot commodity at 27, and will definitely be on the move this summer. He looked sharp as Colombia opened their 2019 Copa America campaign with a 2-0 win over Argentina on Saturday and another stellar summer could see suitors line up once again.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Although Naples is a solid landing spot, bigger clubs could yet come in for the Colombia creator in chief, especially if he takes his country deep in Brazil. Real and the Partenopei may well be locked in talks but are said to be some way off an agreement.

The Serie A club will acquire the player for €10m on a season long loan, but Madrid are holding out for €40m to make the switch permanent. Napoli have offered only €30m.

Transfer predictor: 5/10

HAKIM ZIYECH

0509 Ziyech

Ajax -> £30m -> Arsenal

Dutch journalist Marcel van der Kraan revealed on Sky Sports’ Transfer Window podcast (via talkSPORT) that the player fancies a move to the Gunners.

WHY IT CAN HAPPEN: The player appears open to a move to the Emirates, and it looks a certainty that the Morocco magician will leave Amsterdam this summer. Unlike most players in his situation, Ziyech doesn’t appear to simply be looking for a big payday and wants to continue playing for a club who have a clear philosophy.

With Arsenal also open to selling Mesut Ozil – plus any fee for the German would go to bolster a transfer pot said to be a measly £45m – Ziyech is exactly the sort of creative genius the Gunners require.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Arsenal are not the only club who covet Ziyech. Liverpool are known to be long-term admirers, as are Roma, while Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf report the 26-year-old has received offers from clubs in Germany and Spain too.

It is also understood that Ozil has no intention of being forced out of north London – especially as he has two years remaining on a £350,000-a-week deal.

Transfer predictor: 6/10

MATS HUMMELS

FC Bayern Muenchen v RB Leipzig - Bundesliga

Bayern Munich -> €20m -> Borussia Dortmund

A deal is already believed to be in the final stages to send the German World Cup-winner back to Dortmund, according to www.bavarianfootballworks.com via Bild.

WHY IT CAN HAPPEN: Dortmund must go again after blowing their biggest chance in years to end Bayern’s Bundesliga dominance – and the return of former hero Hummels would certainly energise the club’s fans.

Niklas Sule is a guaranteed starter in Bavaria, while new signing Lucas Hernandez seems certain to take Hummels’ place. He is on the wane but the 2014 World Cup champion also remains a rock – and defensive solidity is something BVB desperately desire.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: This appears as close to a done deal as possible. Dortmund want him and Bayern head coach Niko Kovac has apparently given the move the green light while on vacation.

Transfer predictor: 9/10

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Trent Alexander-Arnold worth €130m, Jadon Sancho €160m in most expensive Under-23 XI

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Clubs have to pay a premium for top talent – but exactly how much they should is always the question. One football research group believes they’ve figured it out.

The CIES Football Observatory, a study centre based in Switzerland, has developed an algorithm that estimates the highest transfer values across Europe’s top five leagues in England, Spain, Italy, France and Germany.

And using that data, we’ve whipped together an XI of the most expensive Under-23s across each division.

Ajax defender Matthijs De Ligt and Benfica attacker Joao Felix don’t feature given their clubs reside in the Netherlands and Portugal, while Frenkie De Jong has only recently moved to Barcelona.

Regardless – this is an incredibly strong team of talent that boast equally hefty transfer prices. France superstar Kylian Mbappe, unsurprisingly, leads the way at a quarter of a billion euros, while five players breach the 100m mark alone.

It speaks for Trent Alexander-Arnold‘s rise in Liverpool colours that the 20-year-old is apparently worth a whopping 130m, and a Premier League premium surely applies to Spurs midfielder Dele Alli, who hits triple figures despite a so-so personal season with Spurs.

After a scintillating season in the Bundesliga with Borussia Dortmund, Jadon Sancho could earn his club 160m if they decided to cash in.

Whether any of these clubs would part with these players for those particular prices is another question entirely – but at the very least, the below goes to show just how lucrative it can be to invest in young talent.

1506 Most expensive u23s XI (1)

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