Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Real Madrid -> Part-exchange -> Paris Saint-Germain
The Ligue 1 champions are demanding the inclusion of the Brazil anchorman in any deal that takes Neymar to Santiago Bernabeu, according to MARCA.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: PSG have been, glaringly, without a world-class defensive midfielder since Thiago Motta retired at the end of 2017/18. There are few better potential successors than countryman Casemiro. Los Blancos have already landed several superb buys this summer, but Neymar would top them all. Losing Casemiro in part-exchange could be a price they are willing to pay. Especially, if they also land Manchester United’s Paul Pogba.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Casemiro grew into an essential component of the side under Zinedine Zidane that won three-successive Champions Leagues. Someone will be required to do the leg work in a new midfield and there is no better candidate than the resident Brazilian. Also, part-exchange deals – especially as this rarefied level – rarely go through. There is also the looming interest of Clasico rivals Barcelona in becoming reacquainted with Neymar.
Transfer predictor: 3/10
Napoli -> €25m -> Manchester United
The Red Devils’ pursuit of a new right-back has seen them enquire about the Albania international’s availability, according to Gianluca Di Marzio.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: A transfer churn is expected at Stadio San Paolo this summer as they try and cut the gap to runaway champions Juventus. To fund aspirational moves for Madrid playmaker James Rodriguez – more on him later – and Roma centre-back Kostas Manolas, sales are required. Hysaj is reported to want a new challenge, plus grew frustrated last term when rotating with Kevin Malcuit. The ex-Empoli defender’s ability to play on both flanks and cheaper price tag than Crystal Palace’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka could see him land at Old Trafford.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Wan-Bissaka is a name that won’t go away for United. The 21-year-old is clearly their priority acquisition. Then there is also the fact that Hysaj is rumoured to have attracted the interest of Atletico Madrid. Playing in the Champions League under Diego Simeone has its own attractions.
Transfer predictor: 5/10
Real Madrid -> Loan -> Napoli
A €10 million gap stands between the clubs as they close on a loan agreement to take the Colombia conductor to Serie A, according to Corriere dello Sport.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: Desire from all three parties – clubs and player – to get this deal done is apparent. This difference between them about the permanent valuation should not be sizeable enough to derail the whole operation. The 27-year-old will want to be the major cog in a side once again, after falling from grace at Madrid and Bayern Munich. Napoli offer him that platform.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN: Presidents Florentino Perez and Aurelio De Laurentiis are both tough negotiators, plus are used to getting their own way. Madrid want a €40m permanent clause, while Napoli are only prepared to spend €30m. Further negotiations will be required to reach a figure both sides find acceptable.
Transfer predictor: 7/10
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