Transfer predictor: Dani Ceballos moving from Real Madrid to Arsenal gets a 7, Rodri to Man City a 9

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Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.

Today’s edition features potential signings for ArsenalManchester City and Bayern Munich.

RODRI

Rodri

Atletico Madrid -> €70 million -> Manchester City

Manchester City will reportedly announce Rodri for a club-record fee on Monday, according to the Daily Mail.

WHY IT WILL HAPPEN

Fernandinho needed a long-term replacement last summer but City missed out on signing Jorginho who joined Chelsea instead. They won’t want to go another window without strengthening in that role which is so crucial to their system under Pep Guardiola. Atletico’s signing of Marcos Llorente meanwhile appears to have paved the way for Rodri’s departure.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN

It would take something pretty dramatic for the wheels to come off the move at this point.

TRANSFER RATING: 9/10

DANI CEBALLOS

Real Madrid -> €50 million -> Arsenal

Arsenal are set to sign Real Madrid midfielder Dani Ceballos, according to Calciomercato.com.

WHY IT WILL HAPPEN

Arsenal are desperate for midfield reinforcements and while Ceballos has struggled to establish himself at the Bernabeu, he has shown that he is a top talent. The Spaniard will be keen to move out of the shadows of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos. Under Unai Emery, he should be afforded the central role he craves while operating in a system that suits him. The Gunners are keen to replace Aaron Ramsey who left for Juventus on a free transfer as well.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN

It’s no secret that Arsenal are operating with a limited budget this summer and Madrid’s asking price for a player who can’t sustain a starting berth in their first team is steep. Given their lavish spending in this window, Los Blancos may dig their heels in to try and get the best possible deal in order to recuperate some funds.

TRANSFER RATING: 7/10

JOAO CANCELO

Cancelo

Juventus -> €60m -> Bayern Munich

Manchester City have been dragging their feet in their pursuit of Joao Cancelo and Bayern Munich could be ready to swoop in for the right-back, Tuttosport claim.

WHY IT WILL HAPPEN

After being run close by Borussia Dortmund last season, the German champions are keen to improve their squad. The 25-year-old is one of the best full-backs in the game and would significantly boost Bayern’s squad depth as they look to challenge in Europe as well.

WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN

In Joshua Kimmich Bayern have a right-back who looks to have secured his spot for the foreseeable future. While they’d like to have backup, the asking price doesn’t match their requirements. Juventus are under no pressure to sell and if Cancelo does move, it seems likely City would be the ones to offer the best price.

TRANSFER RATING: 3/10

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