Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Newcastle United -> £50m -> Manchester United
The Red Devils have been left stunned by Newcastle’s demands and have threatened to move onto other midfield targets, according to The Telegraph.
Why it will happen: Longstaff is a Magpie through and through, yet recent events at Newcastle are forcing his exit. Mentor Rafael Benitez has departed and the first team looks in a parlous condition. Man United offer a jump up the table, greater exposure and bigger wages. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s faith in young, British talent makes the promising midfielder, 21, an obvious target. The new £50 million price tag – more than double the suitors’ valuation – could also just be a bargaining position.
Why it won’t happen: But if it is not mere posturing, this deal looks dead in the water. Newcastle are, apparently, using the fee paid to Crystal Palace by United for right-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka as a benchmark. Longstaff, however, has only nine Premier League appearances to his name and no England youth caps. Put in this context, the £30m discrepancy looks insurmountable.
Transfer Predictor: 4/10
Atalanta -> €20m -> Roma
Roma look poised to imminently land Italy’s latest defensive prospect on a loan with an obligation to buy, according to gianlucadimarzio.com.
Why it will happen: A hole exists in the Roma backline after the sale of Greece’s Kostas Manolas to Napoli and Mancini is the logical player to fill it. The 23-year-old excelled at Atalanta last term, helping to guide them to the Champions League. But bigger wages and a grander platform with the Giallorossi are irresistible. With Juventus hot on the trail of Matthijs de Ligt and now in possession of Sassuolo loanee Merih Demiral, there isn’t any obvious competition.
Why it won’t happen: Only a last-minute issue can scupper this deal. Not even a lack of Champions League football is, seemingly, a hurdle for Mancini.
Transfer Predictor: 9/10
Everton -> €30m -> Paris Saint-Germain
The Ligue 1 giants have restarted negotiations for their winter transfer target and hope to get the deal done this time, according to L’Equipe.
Why it will happen: PSG have long been desperate for midfield reinforcements and they’ve set about getting them this summer. Ander Herrera and Pablo Sarabia are already on board, but there is still a desire for a new defensive midfielder. At 29-years old, Everton will be keenly aware that now could be the time to cash in. It is also far-less disruptive to sell in the summer than January. A return to France for former Lille star Gueye and the offer of Champions League football appear irresistible.
Why it won’t happen: Gueye was the Everton’s joint Player’s Player of the Year for 2018/19 and is a key part of Marco Silva’s project. The Toffees ended last term in fantastic form and will hope to push up the table. Combined with the financial power of all Premier League clubs, their demands may make the deal make less sense for PSG.
Transfer Predictor: 6/10
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