Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.
Today’s edition features potential signings for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Tottenham.
JAMES RODRIGUEZ
Real Madrid -> €50 million -> Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid’s out-of-favour midfielder James Rodriguez could join city rivals Atletico Madrid after Bayern Munich refused to activate the purchase option on his loan deal. Esto Es Atleti claim that an agreement between the clubs is already in place and the transfer sum could exceed €50 million after add-ons.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
Madrid and Bayern don’t want the player anymore but it would be absurd to label Rodriguez as anything but world class. The Colombian playmaker can comfortably start for a top European club and Atletico might just be his calling.
Diego Simeone will need more fire-power in his attacking department despite the mega purchase of Portugal wonderkid Joao Felix and the sale of Antoine Griezmann as well as Lucas Hernandez will have added plenty of money to the coffers.
Rodriguez knows the league, the city and could do well in what looks like a perfect reboot for his club career.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
There are not many forces preventing this move from materialising. Napoli were said to be in the tussle as well, but AS now report that the Italian club has pulled out. Few players in modern times have made the move between the two Madrid clubs, but Los Blancos are unlikely to turn down the opportunity to get rid of an unwanted player.
TRANSFER RATING: 8/10
KIERAN TRIPPIER
Tottenham -> undisclosed -> Bayern Munich
Kieran Trippier failing to build on his impressive World Cup performances from last year has resulted in Tottenham putting him up for sale in the summer transfer window. Sky Sports suggest that German giants Bayern Munich are interested in signing him as a back-up for Joshua Kimmich.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
It’s unlikely that elite clubs will approach Spurs with a bumper offer to sign Trippier, who has just endured a poor season despite Spurs’ run to the Champions League final. The England international will find that given Kimmich’s versatility, Bayern could be the one top club where he could eke out some extensive playing time.
Bayern, on the other hand, will gain a player with top-tier experience who is certainly a notch above the average level of back-up players.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Despite their €70m purchase of Lucas Hernandez, Bayern historically don’t like to splurge on players and according to reports, Trippier won’t come cheap. Transfermarkt value the 28-year-old at €35 million – which is not a small amount for a back-up player.
Besides, Bayern will clearly prioritise a winger with the departures of Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, and that transfer is likely to burn a hole in their pockets. This deal is hence unlikely to see the break of dawn unless Spurs budge from their potentially high asking price.
Sky Germany also report that Bayern Munich could sign Monaco and Germany full-back Benjamin Henrichs , who is more versatile as he is adept at playing on the left.
TRANSFER RATING: 4/10
DANI ALVES
Old, but gold: Dani Alves.
Paris Saint-Germain-> Free Transfer -> Tottenham
With Trippier on the transfer list, the Champions League runners-up may need a marquee signing in the right-back position to compete in Europe again. If reports are to be believed, Spurs could also sell Serge Aurier and rope in two right-backs before the transfer window closes.
Dani Alves – who refused to extend with PSG – has been contacted, according to Sunday Times journalist Duncan Castles.
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN
36-year-old Dani Alves was Brazil’s best player in their Copa America triumph. This should serve as conclusive proof that there is still a lot of football left in the full-back and he can still perform at the top level at a top club.
Alves’ experience could go a long way in helping Spurs to a title, or at least close the gap on Liverpool and Manchester City next year. The player should have no problem moving to a top club which can genuinely contest in Europe under a competent manager in Mauricio Pochettino, who has placed himself in the upper echelons of current coaches.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Spurs will find that despite the absence of a transfer fee, signing free agent Alves will not be a straightforward task. Several top clubs like Arsenal and Manchester City could offer resistance.
The prospect of reuniting with Pep Guardiola at City could play a big role, with the Brazilian still mulling over his next club.
TRANSFER RATING: 5/10
