Transfer Predictor: Mauro Icardi to Napoli is a 7, Memphis Depay to AC Milan a 5

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Mauro Icardi with his wife and agent, Wanda Nara.

Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season? We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why.

Today’s edition features potential signings for Napoli, Bayern Munich and AC Milan:

MAURO ICARDI

Icardi

Inter Milan -> €60m -> Napoli

Inter Milan pariah Mauro Icardi is now open to a move to Napoli after interest from elsewhere ebbed away, according to Corriere dello Sport.

Why it will happen: A tumultuous 2018/19 season featured a complete meltdown in relations between Inter and their one-time club captain. This antipathy has only increased upon the summer arrival of disciplinarian head coach Antonio Conte, who’s eagerly pursuing replacement Romelu Lukaku of Manchester United. To fund this, cashing in on Icardi is essential. Napoli’s interest has remained constant at a time when the likes of Juventus, Manchester United and Real Madrid have declined to bid. This is the only viable escape route, at present.

Why it won’t happen: Icardi is a polarising and combustible figure. It is difficult to anticipate what his decision making process with agent/wife Wanda Nara will entail. Question marks also exist about how Napoli will fund the deal. The Argentina striker’s value has, roughly, halved since a prolific 2017/18, but his wages and fee are still steep.

Transfer Predictor: 7/10

ARNE MAIER

BeFunky-collage

Hertha Berlin -> €35m -> Bayern Munich

Head coach Niko Kovac is an avowed fan of the Germany Under-21 midfielder and is trying to convince Bayern’s omnipotent bosses of his worth, according to tz.

Why it will happen: Bayern’s dominance of the Bundesliga is based upon their control of the domestic markets. Talents of promise are picked off with regularity, the latest being Stuttgart’s France defender Benjamin Pavard. A desire to refresh the middle of the team has seen Kovac prioritise Maier, over the likes of Borussia Monchengladbach’s Denis Zakaria. Maier would be an affordable option, too.

Why it won’t happen: Kovac now faces the steep task of convincing Bayern’s board to go for Maier ahead of other options, mainly emerging Espanyol and Spain U-21 starlet Marc Rosa. Premier League giants Manchester United and Arsenal have also been linked to the Hertha player in the past.

Transfer Predictor: 4/10

MEMPHIS DEPAY

1115 Depay

Lyon -> €45M -> AC Milan

AC Milan have continued to press for long-term target Depay and this week held meetings with his agent to discuss an expensive move to San Siro, according to Calciomercato.com.

Why it will happen: Milan are in need of further upgrades to their attack if they are to finally earn a hallowed return to the Champions League for 2020/21. They have been linked to the Netherlands forward for more than a year. The discussion between SEG representative Kees Vos and director Paolo Maldini points to a continued interest.

Why it won’t happen: This transfer, however, is fraught with difficulty. Financial Fair Play breaches mean Milan are banned from Europe for 2019/20, with future punishments not out of the question. Costs have to be watched. This saw Vos propose a cheaper alternative in Club Brugge and Netherlands winger Arnaut Groeneveld.

Transfer Predictor: 5/10

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