Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season?
We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.
We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgment on whether the move really will happen – and why, or why not.
Today’s edition features a Real Madrid outcast, a promising French defender and a potential Kostas Manolas replacement at Roma.
GARETH BALE
Real Madrid -> Loan -> Bayern Munich
With the pursuit of Leroy Sane being complicated due to an injury and Ousmane Dembele being marked as ‘not for sale’, Bayern Munich could make a loan move for Real Madrid winger Gareth Bale according to AS.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN
Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery’s departure has left Bayern desperate to sign a winger. Sane is still the top priority, but the youngster suffered an injury in Manchester City’s Community Shield victory over Liverpool.
The transfer window closes on Thursday in England and it’s unlikely that the Premier League champions will let go of the player without signing a replacement.
Bale – who is not wanted by his club – should be the next logical option for the German giants. Madrid could face complications in the wage structure if Bale stays for the season and will hence be desperate to see him sold.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Bale and Madrid are firm on not entertaining any loan deals and want to confirm the exit of the player from the Santiago Bernabeu permanently.
On the other hand, Bayern have enquired specifically for a loan deal. This mismatch of interests could hinder the deal.
TRANSFER RATING: 5/10
DAYOT UPAMECANO
RB Leipzig -> £55 million -> Arsenal
Arsenal are interested in signing RB Leipzig centre-back Dayot Upamecano according to Bild. While Kierney Tierney is still a target in the full-back position, the Gunners are eager to strengthen the centre of defence and have turned to the Frenchman after Juventus ruled out a move for Daniele Rugani.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN
The centre-back position is still a priority for the Gunners, with new-signing William Saliba returning to St Etienne on loan and Laurent Koscielny also departing the club.
Upamecano seems to be a fair option for the Gunners, given the pallid back-line requires a gush of young blood. Arsenal’s defence is still far from solid and the 20-year-old could turn out to be a great purchase in the long run.
WHY IT WON’T HAPPEN
Leipzig have reportedly rejected a £55 million bid from Arsenal and have set a price of £70m. This could be well and truly beyond the budget of the Premier League side. They managed to land Lille winger Nicolas Pepe for £72m but have agreed to pay the sum in installments.
It’s unlikely that Arsenal will spend a similar amount in the same window.
TRANSFER RATING: 6/10
TOBY ALDERWEIRELD
Tottenham -> £18.3 million -> Roma
Out of favour Spurs centre-back Toby Alderweireld could be headed to Rome one year before the expiry of his contract according to Gazzetta dello Sport. Roma have reportedly had an £18.3 million bid rejected but are well-poised to get their man.
WHY IT CAN HAPPEN
Alderweireld’s future at the North London club has become uncertain after he was dismissed in the pecking order, with Davinson Sanchez earning a starter’s spot.
Spurs can’t afford to play hard-ball, with the risk of losing the player for free next season. Roma are favourites to land the Belgium international after losing Kostas Manolas to Napoli.
WHY IT CAN’T HAPPEN
Spurs are adamant on the £23m price tag they have set for Alderweireld and Roma are not willing to shell out the additional £4.7m. Also, there are no reports of a personal agreement between Roma and the 30-year-old.
TRANSFER RATING 7/10
