Transfer Predictor: Neymar to Real Madrid a 5, Nacho Monreal to leave Arsenal an 8

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Neymar (c).

Struggling to pick out the facts from the figures? Reality from the rubbish? Sense from the silly season?

We’ve got you sorted in our daily dose of the Transfer Predictor, where we round up the latest rumours with an analytical spin.

We sort through the most eye-catching transfer reports of the past 24 hours and give a balanced judgement on whether the move really will happen – and why, or why not.

Today’s edition features Real Madrid, Manchester United and Bayern Munich:

Paris Saint-Germain -> Part-exchange -> Real Madrid

Neymar.

Neymar.

Los Blancos are seeking assurances about the condition of Brazil superstar Neymar’s suspect metatarsal before they proceed with a blockbuster transfer from PSG, according to Marca.

Why it will happen: Madrid and president Florentino Perez have coveted the 27-year-old’s signature since a spell on trial as a teenager. His disquiet at the Ligue 1 champions and Barcelona’s failure to conclude a deal presents opportunity. Neymar has suffered serious foot injuries in the past two seasons, but has been training with PSG in recent weeks after making a full recovery.

Why it won’t happen: Fracturing the same metatarsal in consecutive seasons will no doubt trouble Los Blancos medical staff – especially with the enormous transfer fee and wages required to do the deal. They will require detailed information from their PSG counterparts to sign off the complex part-exchange deal before September 2’s transfer deadline. Amid intense competition from Barca, and spectre of Juventus, there is much still to do.

Transfer Predictor: 5/10

NACHO MONREAL

Nacho Monreal (r).

Nacho Monreal (r).

Arsenal -> €5m -> Real Sociedad

La Real are pushing to bring Monreal back to the Basque country and are confident Arsenal will agree to a sale, according to Onda Vasca.

Why it will happen: Gunners boss Unai Emery oversaw significant renovations to his defence during the summer. This included a £25 million move for Celtic left-back Kieran Tierney. The Scotland international is expected to be fully fit in October and is then likely to usurp Monreal in the XI. At 33-years old, the former Spain international will be demanding regular first-team football. Sociedad are happy to offer this to the veteran, given his experience and continued fitness levels. A return home to the region of his birth should also appeal.

Why it won’t happen: Monreal has proven a steady performer during six years in north London. He has also started both Premier League fixtures this term. The case of Laurent Koscielny provides further problems. The Gunners refused to let their – now former – skipper force a free transfer to Bordeaux. They will prove similarly intransigent in negotiations for Monreal, meaning La Real may need to pay a significant fee for someone in their thirties.

Transfer Predictor: 8/10

MARC ROCA

Marc Roca.

Marc Roca.

Espanyol -> €30m -> Bayern Munich

The Bundesliga champions are back in negotiations for the Spain Under-21 international after the sale of Renato Sanches to Lille, according to BILD.

Why it will happen: A spot in Bayern’s squad has opened up after Sanches ended his awful stay in Bavaria. A €40m buyout clause also makes the deal an easy one for Bayern to complete, if they are happy with the set price. At 22-years old, his age fits in with the club’s transfer strategy of rejuvenating an ageing squad. Personal terms are reported to have already been agreed and the player has chosen Bayern as his preferred next destination.

Why it won’t happen: Bayern saw a €18m offer for the 2019 Euro U-21 winner dismissed earlier this summer. They now believe a deal can be concluded for €30m – a position Espanyol may not agree with. There is also lingering interest from Real Madrid in the centre midfielder.

Transfer Predictor: 8/10

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