#360View: Champions League becoming increasingly predictable

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  • Gianluca Zambrotta reveals Real Madrid in the UCL draw.

    Txiki Begiristain shifted uneasily in his chair as Manchester City drew Paris Saint-Germain and at Valdebebas, Florentino Perez and Zinedine Zidane probably enjoyed a high-five at seeing Wolfsburg’s name emerge, but it was a largely underwhelming line-up of ties for the Champions League quarter-finals.

    It was a draw befitting of a competition that, Bayern Munich v Juventus aside, is still to deliver any genuine drama justifying its grandiose glamour.

    Manchester United being eliminated at the group stage was, at the time, seen as a considerable shock but with hindsight, given just how average Louis van Gaal’s side are, it appears more as a portent of things to come. Admittedly, Gent’s progress ahead of Valencia and Lyon added some colour to the last 16 but the fact they were beaten 4-2 by Wolfsburg – probably the weakest side left in the competition – represents more a relief that they weren’t drawn against one of the competition’s heavyweights.

    Because while UEFA can now do little about it, the tournament itself is becoming increasingly predictable with each passing year and the likely conclusion when the four ties have been completed on April 13 is that the semi-final line-up will read: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich plus one of PSG or Man City, with the former trio of clubs having made up the last four in three of the last four editions of the competition. PSG and City representing the fourth option is more than a little concerning given the financial might of those two clubs added to a growing experience in the Champion League.

    Depending on draws and if Bayern Munich implode under Carlo Ancelotti (which is highly unlikely), you don’t have to be a clairvoyant to envisage four of those five teams making up next season’s semi-finals as well.
    There were scaremongering headlines in the British press earlier this month about American plans for a European Super League, but the truth is one is already forming and it’s not even a broad collection of clubs amounting to anything that can really constitute a ‘league’ of any volume.

    It’s difficult to see just how it can be tackled. Michel Platini’s project of Financial Fair Play was supposed to restore a degree of parity but the governing body’s climbdown means summer spending, with a number of managerial changes at the top, plus Euro 2016, means serious money is likely to be spent with the continent’s ruling class likely to continue to stockpile the world’s best talent. The fallen reputation of Platini also means it’s unlikely to return in its past form.

    UEFA can’t be too controlling when you consider quotes such as these from Barcelona vice president Susana Monje, who said earlier this week: “We must promote a European league from a position where clubs are in control… that is the clearest of objectives that the club must pursue.”

    The more UEFA push to maintain some sense of parity, the further the elite they have helped create move away from centralised control. These next few years could be a defining era in the balance of power in European football.

    Clubs know the markets available to them in America, the Middle East and China with the interest the Champions League attracts, however predictable it may seem. And as sad as it to say, but protests of the kind by Borussia Dortmund fans at White Hart Lane on Thursday when some aggressive anti-Super League banners were brandished, are largely fruitless.

    We could just allow sports natural order to take over and hope, for example, Real Madrid’s poor governance is punished on the pitch but the reality is money talks, and in the Champions League it’s shouting louder than ever.

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