After Liverpool‘s shock 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the first-leg of the Champions League quarter final at Anfield last Wednesday night, the Reds stand on the edge of their first semi-final appearance in this competition since 2007/08.
It’s nearly impossible for City to come back and win the tie but as Barcelona showed last year – anything is possible.
Here are Seven Deadly Stats ahead of Tuesday’s second leg.
ODDS HEAVILY IN LIVERPOOL’S FAVOUR
Based on historical results in all European competitions, Liverpool have a 94% chance of going through to the semi-finals at this point. Longer odds have been overcome, of course – last season, Barcelona had a 0% chance of overturning their 4-0 first-leg deficit to PSG in the Round of 16. Somebody just forgot to tell Lionel Messi, Neymar, and company.
Manchester City will no doubt be using that match as inspiration.
Barcelona’s comeback against PSG will be the inspiration for City.
KLOPP HAS PEP’S NUMBER
Seven wins in 13 games against the manager hailed as the greatest of his era – that’s not a bad record at all for Jurgen Klopp. The Liverpool manager had success against Pep Guardiola when they were both in the Bundesliga, leading Borussia Dortmund to four wins in eight meetings against Guardiola’s Bayern Munich, and he’s extended that record when the two managers have duelled in England.
Guardiola’s lone victory over Klopp as Manchester City came this season, however, and it does provide evidence that a comeback is on – City beat Liverpool 5-0 at the Etihad Stadium in September, albeit it took a Sadio Mane red card for Liverpool for the game to become so one-sided.
Jurgen Klopp: Pep’s kryptonite.
AN UNWANTED FIRST FOR PEP?
Pep Guardiola has a perfect record in Champions League quarter-finals so far: played seven, won seven. If he pulls off a comeback, he’ll join Jose Mourinho as the only managers to have reached eight semi-finals in this competition.
Pep Guardiola is on the verge of being knocked out in the quarter-finals for the first time.
HISTORY DOESN’T BODE WELL FOR CITY
To reach the semi-finals, Manchester City will have to do something they’ve never done before in their history. The Cityzens have never overcome a three-goal deficit in European or domestic competition regardless of whether they’ve been playing the second leg at home or away.
City have to overcome a deficit they’ve never turned around before.
LIVERPOOL’S EUROPEAN HERITAGE
What will give Liverpool encouragement – if the three-goal lead isn’t enough – is that they don’t lose by three goals in Europe. It hasn’t happened in a European away game in over 20 years; a 3-0 loss in the UEFA Cup to RC Strasbourg in 1997. Heritage isn’t just about raucous Anfield crowds.
Klopp will trust defensive lieutenant Virgil Van Dijk to see Liverpool through.
A RED GOAL GLUT
Another blow in favour of the red corner is their remarkable goal record this season. They’ve scored 31 times in the Champions League, the most they’ve ever scored in a single European campaign. As a benchmark, last season, only Real Madrid scored more – 36 in their run to the trophy. A reminder: if Liverpool score just once on Tuesday, City will need to score five times to progress.
Liverpool are scoring at a historic rate for the Champions League.
THEY’VE GOT SALAH
If Mo Salah is fit, he’ll be in prime position to break or at least tie yet another record in his stunning debut season for Liverpool. He’s currently on seven Champions League goals for the season – the most by an African player is eight (Samuel Eto’o, for Inter Milan in 2010/11).
Can City stop Salah? Can anyone?
*Stats provided by Gracenote
