Champions League: Real Madrid are biggest threat to favourites Liverpool and Leipzig are dark horses

Karan Tejwani 10:50 18/02/2020
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  • On Tuesday night, Liverpool return to the scene of their sixth Champions League win. Just seven months prior, they were hoisting the famous big ears to the skies in Madrid and since then, they haven’t looked back. Twenty-five Premier League wins and two more trophies later, they look best placed to win the title once again, potentially becoming just the second side to retain the trophy in the Champions League era.

    At the time the draw was made between the Reds and Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, it seemed as though the Rojiblancos would be their kryptonite – the type of side that could put a halt to their exceptional season and make it seem like light work. However, Atleti’s form since then has faltered. They’ve won just three out of their eight matches in 2020 – even going out of the Copa del Rey to third-division Cultural Leonesa. This is arguably the worst state they’ve been in since Diego Simeone’s first task in 2012 and they hardly look like a threat.

    For Liverpool, being 25 points clear at the top and playing with confidence, they look like a difficult team to beat. At this rate, they could win the title a month from now – possibly even before the second-leg of the tie against the Madrid side. Should they go through this round, there will be an opportunity for them to rest players domestically and focus on Europe, further opening the gates to retain Europe’s biggest prize.

    With a side so talented and capable of handling challenges, it seems impossible to stop them. The Reds lost Sadio Mane to injury but looked undeterred; they had to play 18 matches in two months in five different competitions and came out unscathed; they fielded a second-string eleven in two separate rounds of the FA Cup and still progressed – there is a winning mentality ensued in this squad that seems unbreakable.

    Their biggest challenge arguably comes from Real Madrid, the previous holders of this competition. After an inconsistent start to the season, Zinedine Zidane’s side have gone from strength to strength. Los Blancos have conceded just 16 goals in La Liga and just seven since the start of November, making them a difficult team to breakdown. Sunday’s 2-2 draw against Celta Vigo was a sign of their weakness, but the return of Eden Hazard from injury will be a massive boost in their bid for a league and Champions League double.

    Madrid haven’t lost domestically since October, with Zidane showing more tactical flexibility and making use of his talents in midfield such as Casemiro and Federico Valverde. Those two, along with new signing Ferland Mendy will be crucial – the Frenchman has never lost when he has started and conceded just four times. Their opponents are Manchester City, for whom the Champions League is more crucial than ever before.

    Unless the ban on European competitions by UEFA is successfully appealed, this seems as though it may be the last chance for Pep Guardiola’s team to win the tournament until 2023. With the Premier League certainly out of the window and a chance they could well be missing out on European football next year, all their focus will shift to the Champions League. When the draw was made, it seemed as though they were the two teams best-placed to stop Liverpool and after recent news of the ban, City have all the more incentive.

    Or perhaps it could be another team funded by petrodollars that has a strong chance: Paris Saint-Germain look to put aside the calamitous heartbreaks of 2017 and 2019 and look best-equipped since the Qatari takeover to go far in the Champions League. This is the season that Neymar has looked at his best, while the supporting cast has chipped in as well. Angel Di Maria, once deemed a liability at PSG, is probably in the best form since he moved to the French capital while Kylian Mbappe continues to shine.

    Thomas Tuchel has been impressed by the idea of fielding those three, along with Mauro Icardi, together in a 4-2-2-2. They’ve started eight games together across all competitions, won seven, drawn one and scored 28 times. If there is a side that they can exploit in this fashion, it is Borussia Dortmund, who have been defensively abject this season, conceding 32 goals in the league – the most of any team in the top seven.

    It’s hard to think about the Champions League without thinking of its two greatest goalscorers: Barcelona’s Lionel Messi and Juventus’ Cristiano Ronaldo. At this point, they both seem to be at a difficult stage. While Juventus are currently leading Serie A, they seem awfully reliant on their star man for goals – he’s scored in 13 of the last 14 matches he has played for them. Lyon won’t be the most difficult challenge looking at their struggles this season, but should they get through that, the road will be bumpy.

    As for Barcelona, they seem like a team without an identity. The sacking of Ernesto Valverde and their overall activity in 2020 has been haphazard, with a long-term injury to Luis Suarez causing further problems. Napoli, their opponents, seem to be picking up form at the right time as well under Gennaro Gattuso – they’ve won five of their last six matches including wins over the likes of Serie A’s current top three: Juventus, Lazio and Inter.

    Each season sees a dark horse arise: in the last three years it has been Monaco, AS Roma and Ajax, and this year, it could well be RB Leipzig. Julian Nagelsmann’s team are in the race to win the Bundesliga, but this season is historic enough seeing as this is the first time they managed to make it through to the knockout rounds. Their tie against Spurs is arguably the most difficult to predict. Perhaps luckily for them, Jose Mourinho hasn’t made it to the quarter-finals of the Champions League since 2014.

    Leipzig’s rivals in Germany, Bayern Munich, have also picked up form since Hansi Flick’s arrival as interim boss. If their tie against Chelsea had been played in October, odds would’ve favoured Frank Lampard’s side, but the Bavarians have improved drastically since – they were seventh in the league in early December and now sit top. Goals also haven’t been in short supply: in six matches this year, they’ve scored 20 times.

    At this point, it seems silly not to back holders Liverpool. They have the advantage of time seeing as they could win their title possibly two months earlier than their nearest challengers while their confidence is unbreakable. The chasing pack – with plenty looking good this season – have lots to contend with and while Liverpool may have some too, they take challenges in their stride and are best-equipped to go all the way again.

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