The business end of the 2018 World Cup is upon us and Brazil v Mexico should provide us with one of the most entertaining clashes of the round of 16.
Brazil have hardly bristled with brilliance in getting to this stage, while Mexico have been one of the joys of the tournament, but scraped in after being slaughtered 3-0 by Sweden in their final group game.
Ahead of this tantalising tussle, we look at three tactical talking points.
CAN BRAZIL BURST INTO LIFE?
We saw it with France in their explosive 4-3 victory over Argentina on Saturday, they’d finally arrived at the 2018 World Cup.
Many of the giants and favourites for the trophy have been slow and sluggish in their opening three games – Germany totally flopped and failed to emerge from the group, while Argentina just about did but were woefully uninspiring and were deservedly swept away by Les Bleus.
Brazil have been far from their best, but you feel they are stirring. They were excellent in the first 45 minutes against Switzerland but poor against Costa Rica, with fortune favouring them. They did, however, get over the line and then put Serbia to sleep as qualification was secured. It’s now time for Tite’s troops to transform and take the tournament by storm.
With that in mind, for how much longer does Tite persist with misfiring forwards Gabriel Jesus and Willian?
Both were yet again alarmingly poor against Serbia. The Manchester City forward produced two unskilled touches and mustered just one shot on goal, while Willian was dispossessed four times.
Despite these statistics, both played the entire 90 minutes.
Just what does Roberto Firmino have to do to earn a starting spot? In 12 minutes against Switzerland he got off two shots – twice as many as Jesus, who played 93 minutes. And it was his leap and header that set up the breakthrough goal in the following 2-0 win over Los Ticos for Philippe Coutinho, despite the fact Jesus’ miscontrolled touch saw him credited with the assist.
PRESSING HOME THE ISSUE
After such a spineless performance to close out Group F against Sweden, most analysts are of the opinion that Mexico’s chances of progressing to the quarter-finals of the World Cup are even more perilous than originally thought.
But, oddly enough, taking on a heavyweight might well play into Mexico’s hands.
Against Germany in their opener, their high-press game and performances of their rapid attackers breaking on the counter-attack proved to be a masterstroke.
Germany couldn’t live with it and Brazil will be preparing to play the Juan Carlos Osario side that turned up for that first game.
Brazilian media have reported ahead of this game that the expectation around the camp will be Mexico will go for an energetic full-pitch press. This could put pressure on Brazil’s defensive line to be stoic in possession at the back, but any problems caused will undoubtedly also open up spaces for Canarinho’s stars to exploit in El Tri’s back-line.
Against Germany, Mexico enjoyed just 34 per cent of possession. So not having the ball, working hard without it and then making the most of the opportunities that came their way, works in their favour.
Against South Korea, Mexico enjoyed a 58-42 per cent possession advantage. They shipped three goals against Sweden but unbelievably dominated possession 67-33.
It clearly suits them to play a team who are better at keeping the ball.
So the issue now is how much of a psychological blow has that Sweden defeat dealt to Mexican confidence?
If they get back to basics and play to their strengths, El Tri can give Brazil a torrid time.
Speaking of psychology…
MEXICO NEED MENTAL TOUGHNESS
Hirving Lozano and Mexico must find the mental strength to overcome Brazil.
The North Americans have never beaten the South Americans in four prior World Cup encounters (one draw, three defeats) and have been outscored 11-0 in those skirmishes.
And while El Tri have featured in the round of 16 but not made it to the quarter-finals in each of the last six tournaments, stretching back to 1986, this game will as much come down to Mexico’s mental fortitude. A disappointing defeat to Sweden is a mere byproduct.
Mexico’s rotten form in the last 16 is even more agonising when breaking down the fine margins that have led to heartbreak.
Defeat on penalties to Bulgaria in 1994 began what would become a barren run. They blew a lead against Germany four years later and once more against Argentina in 2006.
Conceding twice to the Netherlands in the final minutes four years ago was perhaps the deepest cut, especially with a controversial penalty awarded for a theatrical Arjen Robben dive in stoppage time seeing the Dutch scythe down their hopes yet again.
The quest to reach the “quinto partido” (fifth match) at a World Cup has now become a crusade. “There’s no greater memory than making history with a fifth match,” said Mexico captain Andres Guardado.
“We’re different players in terms of the mental aspect, but we know we’ll be judged by whether we get through or not.”
Mexico will surely snipe and swarm around Brazil’s players and play at an extremely high tempo.
But aside from the manager pleading for his players to press and scurry around the pitch, captain Guardado’s passion and wise words will do as much to inspire his players as any magical managerial tactic or ploy.
