Chris Froome hoped to be winning a record-equalling fifth Tour de France title this July, but must instead watch on from a rehabilitation unit in Monaco after suffering a string of injuries in a horror crash.
Without him, the Tour feels wide open. Geraint Thomas may return as defending champion but he suffered his own spill at the Tour de Suisse in the build-up, a reminder that the Welshman’s Tour history has been littered with crashes prior to last year.
Behind him is a long queue of hopefuls, not least his own team-mate Egan Bernal, eager to exploit a rare opportunity.
Geraint Thomas (Wales)
Geraint Thomas’ 2018 Tour victory was unquestionably a surprise. As much as the Welshman himself talked up his form prior to the race, the shock was evident on his own face after the stage 20 time trial in Espelette confirmed the result. Thomas was able to go into the Tour as second fiddle to Chris Froome, with the pressure and the expectation elsewhere. But that will not happen again. Froome’s horror crash at the Criterium du Dauphine means he is recovering elsewhere, while the number one is pinned to Thomas’ back in Brussels. How a rider who has had an unfortunate history of mishaps in this race prior to last July is able to handle the extra pressure and scrutiny remains to be seen. After the celebrations from last year extended late into 2018, Thomas had a slow start to the season, making his form tough to judge even before a crash ended his Tour de Suisse early. The favourite he may be, but Thomas is far from a lock. Still, just as they did 12 months ago, Team Ineos are in the fortunate position of having an outstanding Plan B. Egan Bernal’s win in Switzerland has elevated the 22-year-old Colombian to the status of second favourite. He has promised to support Thomas should the Welshman be stronger, but will be waiting in the wings if the opportunity comes his way.
Romain Bardet (French)
Team: AG2R La-Mondiale
“This year or never!” screamed the front page of L’Equipe a little under a fortnight before the start of the 2019 Tour. Desperation for a first home win since Bernard Hinault in 1985 is becoming extreme in France. One man seems to carry the burden more than most, though you can hardly tell it by looking at the cool exterior of the 28-year-old Romain Bardet. Two podium finishes in the last three years show he has the calibre, but carrying the weight of expectation cannot be easy, and we can only imagine how much the scrutiny would ramp up should he actually pull on the yellow jersey. Tour organisers are no longer being subtle about trying to engineer a route designed to favour French riders, and by having the Bastille Day stage finish in Bardet’s home town this year they are laying it on really quite thick.
Jakob Fuglsang (Denmark)
Fuglsang has shown outstanding form in stage races so far this year to put himself in the conversation in what looks to be – in the absence of Froome – an open Tour. The Dane finished third at Tirreno-Adriatico, fourth in the Tour of the Basque Country and then won the Criterium du Dauphine. Fuglsang has won the Dauphine once before, in 2017, and followed it up by moving as high as fifth at the Tour before a crash brought a premature end to his race. He has decent calibre then, but the veteran rider has a less impressive record over three weeks. He finished seventh in the 2013 Tour, but that is his only top 10 finish in 12 Grand Tour starts. At 34, is it too late for Fuglsang to win a big one?
Richie Porte (Australia)
Whatever the chances of a future French win are, it might be this year or never for Richie Porte, who at 34 is running out of chances to turn a fine stage-race career into a Grand Tour-winning one. His high point of a fifth-placed finish is now three years in the memory, while the Tasmanian’s dismal record of illness, injury and misfortune continues. Last year he did not even make it to the feared cobbles on stage nine before hitting the deck and breaking his collarbone. An open Tour is exactly what Porte needs but in order to take advantage he will have to stay out of trouble, and that is much easier said than done.
Adam Yates (England)
Yates came to the 2018 Tour with high hopes. Having finished fourth and won the young riders’ classification in 2016, his eyes were firmly set on the podium. But though things began well enough, the Lancastrian quickly faded when the race moved into the Alps and lost heaps of time to slide completely out of contention on his way to an eventual 29th place. Yates blamed dehydration for the collapse in form, and vowed to use it as a learning experience. Given the way his twin brother Simon learned from mistakes made in the 2018 Giro d’Italia to bounce back and win La Vuelta later that year, perhaps then we should pay some serious attention. Yates showed strong form in the Criterium du Dauphine, wearing the yellow jersey for a day and finishing the final stage eight seconds in arrears before being hit by illness which should prove only a minor setback.
Nairo Quintana (Colombia)
Last year proved a disappointing one for Quintana, who had to settle for 10th place at the Tour de France and eighth at La Vuelta – the first year in which he failed to take a podium place at a Grand Tour since 2013. Indeed, he has failed to seriously challenge since the 2017 Giro, when he was pipped to victory on the final stage by Tom Dumoulin. Still, at 29 the Colombian is far too young to dismiss, particularly in a year when the Tour features so many climbs at high altitude and so few kilometres. If there was a year for a pure climber to win it, this is it. Quintana has surely taken note.
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