Both on paper and on the field, the Jacksonville Jaguars defence is built to stop Tom Brady.
The New England Patriots may be the more well-rounded and complete team in tonight’s AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium, but the Jaguars’ formidable unit is designed to even the playing field.
With their combination of pass rushing and lockdown cornerbacks, it’s no wonder the Jaguars finished the regular season boasting the second-fewest yards allowed in the NFL (286.1 per game), second-fewest points surrendered (16.8), fewest passing yards against (169.9), the lowest passer rating (68.5), the second-most sacks (55) and second-most takeaways (33).
New England, meanwhile, had the second-best scoring offence in the league (28.6 points) and gained the most yards (394.2) with Brady again leading a high-octane attack.
When Brady meets the Jaguars, it’ll be a case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.
However, the Patriots are more uniquely equipped to exploit Jacksonville in ways other teams have failed to do this season.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Jaguars’ defensive effectiveness has been highly dependent on which offensive formation they face.
When opposing offences lined up with three wide receivers or more, Jacksonville had the league’s best success rate at 39 per cent, the fewest yards per attempt at 5.0 and the second-best passer rating at 59.
When offences lined up with one or two wide receivers though, the Jaguars’ defensive ranks fell sharply as their success rate of 55 per cent (23rd), yards per attempt of 9.6 (28th) and passer rating of 99 (18th) were all in the bottom half of the league.
The discrepancy plays right into the Patriots’ hands as Sharp Football Analysis found they used 11 personnel (three wide receivers) the sixth-least of any team in the league, while using 21 personnel (two wide receivers, two running backs and one tight end) the most.
When using 21 personnel, New England had a 64 per cent success rate, 9.0 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 133.
If the Patriots flash the threat of a running game, Jacksonville will be forced to put their base personnel on the field on early downs, which would make them more susceptible to play action while potentially slowing down their pass rush.
Brady could then attack mismatches in the middle of the field which pit the Jaguars’ linebackers on New England’s shifty running backs and tight end Rob Gronkowski.
While the weakness of Jacksonville’s defence makes this a more comfortable match-up for Brady than initially meets the eye, the Jaguars have two aces up their sleeves that could potentially neutralise the Patriots’ advantage.
The first could see two All-Pros battle head-to-head if Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey is lined up on Gronkowski.
Cornerbacks are usually at a size disadvantage against Gronkowski, but the 6-foot-1 Ramsey possess elite athleticism along with physicality that could disrupt the tight end, particularly in the red zone.
“He hasn’t played a corner like me before,” said the ever-confident Ramsey.
Jacksonville’s other equaliser could be their pass rush, which has the ability to generate pressure on with the front four alone – the exact style that gave Brady and the Patriots trouble in both Super Bowl losses to the New York Giants.
And while former Giants coach Tom Coughlin won’t be on the sidelines tonight (UAE: 00:05 +1), he’s helped put together the Jaguars’ personnel with the knowledge of what if takes to beat New England.
Plenty of attention has been paid to Brady’s mysterious hand injury in the lead-up, but there’s no doubt the biggest obstacle standing in his way of another Super Bowl appearance is a hungry and capable Jacksonville defence.
