Rob Gronkowski vs Malcolm Jenkins and other key one-on-one matchups in Super Bowl LII

Rob Gronkowski v Malcolm Jenkins

At 6-foot-6, 265 pounds, the Patriots tight end is a problem every defence has to solve. Even though he was sidelined with an injury in last year’s Super Bowl and knocked out with a concussion in last week’s AFC Championship Game, the Patriots offence is simply better leaps and bounds better when Gronkowski plays. Since 2010 (including playoffs), New England have scored 2.9 points per drive with Gronkowski and 2.3 without him. The Patriots will move him around the formation in the hopes of drawing a mismatch they can exploit. And when they do get one, Tom Brady will be relentless in attacking.

Philadelphia can choose to counter Gronkowski in a number of ways, opting for double teams, a rotation of defenders or shadowing him with one player. The last option seems most likely, with Jenkins drawing the assignment. The Eagles safety is used to matching up against tight ends, but Philadelphia as a whole struggled to contain tight ends this season, allowing 45.2 yards per game and ranking 17th in DVOA (defence-adjusted value over average) by Football Outsiders. If Jenkins struggles out of the gate, the Eagles may go with double-teams on Gronkowski, opening up the rest of the field for Brady.

Nelson Agholor v Eric Rowe

It’s been a breakout year for Agholor, who’s emerged as one of the best slot receivers in all of football. While Zach Ertz led Philadelphia in receiving and Alshon Jeffery is the true number one wideout in the passing game, Agholor plays a crucial role in the middle of the field as a safety blanket for Foles. He was targeted 30 times on third down this season, producing a passer rating of 134.7, according to Pro Football Focus, the best mark among all receivers with at least 30 third down targets. He’s also a factor in trick plays, jet sweeps and RPOs (run-pass options).

Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler are expected to have their hands full with Jeffery and Torrey Smith, respectively, which means Rowe will likely have to chase around Agholor in the slot. New England’s secondary has been at its weakest in the middle of the field during the playoffs, with Rowe often getting beat in the wins over Tennessee and Jacksonville, and Agholor is a better slot receiver than either of those two teams possess. Making things more interesting, Rowe and Agholor are familiar with each other after both were drafted by the Eagles in 2015, before the former was traded to New England.

Brandon Graham v LaAdrian Waddle/Cameron Fleming

Philadelphia’s Fletcher Cox may be the most important defensive player in the Super Bowl, but Graham may be the Eagles’ pass rusher most primed to have an impact. Graham will face either LaAdrian Waddle or Cameron Fleming, or potentially both if New England chooses to rotate the right tackles, with either presenting a mismatch in the Eagles’ favour. Graham recorded a career-high 9.5 sacks this season and because Philadelphia have and utilise their depth on the defensive line, he should be mostly fresh throughout the game – fatigue has plagued pass rushers facing the Patriots in the past.

It’s unclear if Waddle or Fleming will start at right tackle, with the former recovering from a knee sprain suffered in the divisional round. When he’s been healthy, Waddle has been the Patriots’ choice after starter Marcus Cannon was put on injured reserve late in the season. However, Waddle has struggled to hold up in pass protection, allowing 17 pressures on just 225 attempts this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Though Waddle may be slotted back in to start the game, Fleming provides some insurance if things go wrong, but both will be in need of double-teams on Graham at times.