#360debate: Will New Zealand retain the Rugby World Cup?

Sport360 staff 06:54 14/09/2015
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  • Defending champs: New Zealand.

    The 2015 Rugby World Cup will kick-off in England on Friday and all eyes are already focused on defending champions New Zealand—once more favourites for the title.

    The All Blacks shook off their ‘chokers’ tag four years ago with a victory on home soil, but the fact remains that they have never won the World Cup on the road despite regularly entering the tournament as the world’s leading side.

    With that in mind, our #360debate today is: Will New Zealand retain the Rugby World Cup?

    ANDREW BINNER, sport360.com, thinks YES.

    Every victorious World Cup side has been built upon three key components: good form, experience and strength in depth. With five days until the tournament starts no one challenges the All Blacks in any of these departments and for this reason, the champions will retain their title in England.

    While the remarkable improvement of northern hemisphere opposition will undoubtedly make the world champions’ task harder than in 2011, there has not been sufficient enough progress to suggest that Richie McCaw won’t be lifting the trophy at Twickenham on October 31.

    The only realistic threats to Steve Hansen’s men come in the form of Ireland, South Africa, Australia and England. While all four teams possess the required experience and form to win the competition, they all fall short in the vital third category.

    World Cup’s are a war of attrition and the All Blacks are the only team that can cope with a glut of injuries while retaining their impeccably high standards.

    If one of Johnny Sexton or Paul O’Connell go down, Ireland’s chances will fall with them. South Africa are a team in transition with little consistency while Australia are a supremely talented but inexperienced side and England are a couple of years away from their prime.

    Doubters will point to the host’s thrashing of the All Blacks at Twickenham in 2012 and a recent loss to the Wallabies as a cause for concern in New Zealand, but history says that those rare losses do little other than galvanise the Kiwis.

    Australia’s All Black upset in 2011 grounded New Zealand and energised their team to devastating effect in the World Cup, while England also will have to make do without their most potent attacking weapon on that famous day in Manu Tuilagi.

    Sir Clive Woodward talked about the all-important spine of a team carrying them though the rigours of a World Cup and in Dane Coles, Brodie Retallick, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter and Ben Smith it would take a minor miracle to rattle those bones.

    JAMES PIERCY, deputy editor, thinks NO.

    Since the last World Cup, Steve Hansen’s side have won 42 of 47 games – a success rate of 89.3 per cent – losing just three and scoring an average of 32 points per match. 

    In the four years leading up to their success in 2011, that record was 36 wins in 45 with a win percentage of 80 per cent. The best and most dominant team on the planet have become more dominant.

    Champions: New Zealand 2011.

    Yet the fact remains that when the World Cup has been played on European soil, they have never got beyond the semi-finals.

    Whether it be the pressure, conditions or the fact New Zealand just don’t travel well, it’s a damning statistic which runs contrary to their superiority.

    Winning a second title is always harder than the first. The motivation has to exceed what was generated before. Why climb Everest a second time when you know what the view is like?

    The 2011 veterans have got to raise their games to surpass the expectations placed on them back home, having experienced that once-in-a-limetime moment already. And it’s those veterans which leave the major question marks over this side.

    Their expected starting XV which, barring injuries, should serve them throughout the tournament contains five in their 30s: Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Jerome Kaino, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith. All titans of the game but all with their best days behind them.

    The Nonu-Smith midfield axis, especially, could start to look very creaky in the latter stages against such ebullient back lines as Australia, England and France, if Philippe Saint-Andre takes the shackles off.

    Carter’s once laser-guided kicking game has shown signs of ageing while he played most of the season for Canterbury at inside centre, a move which only highlighted his increasing lack of penetration with the ball in hand.

    In 2011, the All Blacks entered their home tournament as one of two likely winners; alongside the Wallabies who had just beaten them in Brisbane. It was effectively theirs to lose.

    In 2015, on foreign soil, there are six, maybe seven, likely champions. It’s a varied and deep field and one that this side won’t be able to plough its way through.

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