With the third round of the Six Nations now upon us, title-race leaders Ireland and England face tricky fixtures at home at Wales and away at Scotland respectively, while France hope to get their first win of the campaign against Italy – we examine where the games will be won and lost
France v Italy
This one should come down to what is going on in the French psyche. But for a piece of Jonny Sexton magic for Ireland, and shoddy ill-discipline against Scotland, we could be sat here with France on two wins from two.
As is it they are staring down the barrel of a wooden spoon decider with perennial basement boys Italy. Even with eight players suspended for some night-time indiscretions in Edinburgh – everything points to France having too much for Conor O’Shea’s men. But we all know the mental fragility of Les Bleus and if Italy can get a foothold in the game those doubts can easily manifest.
Italy will be buoyed by their second-half performance in Dublin last time out, where they were a fraction away from securing a try bonus point. They need to start well and play on French confidence if they are to cause an upset in Marseille.
Ireland v Wales
Jonny Sexton’s last-gasp drop goal in Paris sealed what looked to be an unlikely win for Ireland.
There are mini-battles all over the pitch in this one, but the main clash is likely to be played out with the boot. Four boots to be specific, those of Conor Murray and Jonny Sexton for Ireland, and Gareth Davies and Dan Biggar for Wales.
Ireland are the master tacticians when it comes to the aerial game and are likely to want to play territorially against Wales and their new-found open running game. For Murray, his box kicking will be key, especially ensuring his chasers have something to go after. If not directly challenging for the ball, Ireland will be looking to snuff out any potential Welsh counter-attack at source and force them to go from deep. Sexton, meanwhile, will look to find corners and allow his well-drilled forwards to put pressure on the Welsh set piece.
For Davies and Biggar there is more of a dilemma. Wales had great success against Scotland with an expansive game, but found the door a little harder to beat down with a better defensive unit in England. Ireland will not be as forthcoming as the Scots and patience may be the key so more air-time on the ball could well be employed. It’s likely Wales will want to keep the ball on the field and pressure the Irish into giving up turnover ball – which Warren Gatland’s men will thrive off. This is likely to be a real chess match, with the pair producing the fewer errors coming out on top.
Scotland v England
Sam Simmonds could be used on the flank against Scotland with Nathan Hughes returning at No.8
Pre-tournament this fixture was seen as one that would be pivotal in the overall outcome of the Six Nations, with Scotland expected to be challenging for honours. That may not be the case now, but it doesn’t mean they can’t throw a spanner in the works for their friends south of the border. Scotland have found it difficult to get much forward momentum in their games against Wales and France, and the English defence will provide an even sterner test.
For that reason, this one will be won and lost in the battle of the back rows. Finn Russell has been wildly out of sorts in both games and only the reassuring calm of Greig Laidlaw helped Scotland over the line against the French. For these two to have any level of influence on the game they cannot afford to be on the back foot – and that means the Scottish pack carrying well and securing clean ball – it’s the only way strike runners like Huw Jones and Stuart Hogg will be released. Scottish forwards don’t feature in the top end of the carries made stats in the tournament and their work-rate has to improve if they are going to put the Red Rose under pressure.
In John Barclay, Hamish Watson and Ryan Wilson, they don’t possess the biggest of back rows but must rely on dynamism to move round the larger English pack. With Nathan Hughes likely to return at No.8, Eddie Jones’ men have a genuinely destructive ball-carrier who can give England the impetus which an allow the George Ford-Owen Farrell axis to operate at maximum capacity.
Again, Barclay and Watson will look to stifle things on the ground but unless they can do this will any kind of consistency, it could be a long afternoon for Gregor Townsend and his team.
