It’s another huge weekend of Six Nations action with two games that could have a big influence on who ends up winning the championship.
I really fancy Wales to get a result against Ireland in Dublin. They are showing signs of progression this year and as we build to the 2019 World Cup I think they are in a really positive place.
I think it was pretty inevitable that Dan Biggar would come back into the side, as he’s got the ability to dictate a game at international level and that’s incredibly important when playing in games of this calibre.
Rhys Patchell is unfortunate to drop out of the 23 but that’s international rugby for you, it can be brutal at times. Truth is, Gareth Anscombe is going to offer more of a threat off the bench when the game opens up and he displayed some promising signs against England two weeks ago.
With Biggar returning to the team, I hope that doesn’t mean Wales let this turn into a kick-fest. They need to stick to what has worked for them so far in the competition, and that’s going through phases, moving teams around the pitch, and working openings and gaps in defences.
From Ireland’s perspective we know how good the tactical kicking game of Conor Murray and Jonny Sexton can be. I have first-hand experience of playing with Sexton and he is a class act – but he wants to control every aspect of the game, and at times you can get into his head.
Wales managed it last season, and it will be key to their success on Saturday. We saw against Italy what he can do with time on the ball, the little wrap around plays, and how he can bring others into the game – but you can cut that off at source.
The Welsh back-row will undoubtedly target him. They will be flying up and getting in his face and giving him absolutely no time to dictate the play as he wants to.
One thing that did strike me in the Italy game however was the thought it could all be a set-up designed to get the Welsh defensive coaches working on getting off the line quickly and up in his face – opening up space in behind for little dinks over the top.
Gareth Davies will have a big role to play for Wales too. Up against Murray it will be a great battle at nine, but key for Gareth is to play his own game. He’s got to inject pace into the game, take quick tap penalties and take advantage of broken play. That’s what he does well and if he can unsettle the Irish defence it can be pivotal.
In the last few years I think the Irish pack has got the better of things but I don’t think that will be the case this weekend.
The Welsh pack is full of confidence and is working well on and off the ball. And the current back-row combination of Josh Navidi, Aaron Shingler and Ross Moriarty is much stronger than the Irish back-row and when it comes to both sides getting on the front foot that’s going to be crucial.
I had some epic battles against Ireland over the years and I expect this to be no different. Going up against Ireland was always tough, with great guys like Paul O’Connell and Ronan O’Gara, but I often seemed to raise my game against them.
Scoring and getting man of the match in the 2011 World Cup quarter final is without doubt one of the high points of my career.
It’s a big game too at Murrayfield. England are unbeaten, and I can’t see that changing – as much as I’d like it too!
Scotland got a win last time out against a pretty poor French side, but they have massive problems of their own, and while they want respect the only way they are going to get it is by earning it – and that happens on the pitch.
They have to be aggressive against England, both in defence and attack – every inch counts in games like this. They were really flat against Wales but on Saturday they will have to show a lot of pride and passion because England will put them under a lot of pressure.
Finn Russell has been poor in both games so far and is lucky to still be in the side after some of the mistakes he’s made. Add to that a back-row that hasn’t got a big ball carrier who can get them over the gainline and offload and it’s difficult to see how they can get on the front foot and release some of their quality backs.
In comparison, England have got all that and more. Nathan Hughes is coming back into the side and he will take some stopping. He’s a strong, powerful runner who can create space and holes in defences that others can exploit. Even with Billy Vunipola missing, England can still have some phenomenal options and that is a huge advantage for them.
Add into this how well George Ford and Owen Farrell are playing together, and you can only see this match going one way – a comfortable England win by about 12 points.
Finally, we have the game between France and Italy. Firstly, I’ll just say, Friday night games are not for me. Call me a traditionalist but I grew up with the Five Nations, as it was then, played on Saturday and you’d get the build-up in the morning, then 2.30pm kickoffs and that was perfect for me.
It may be done for greater exposure, but the Friday games don’t do it for me.
I have spoken to a lot of people in France who aren’t happy with things at the moment, and rightly so. There are a few players in that side who aren’t great and they need to start playing as a team, rather than a group of individuals.
Mathieu Bastareaud returns this week, but I’m not convinced he’s the answer to their problems. I played against him in France and loved winding him up – it was pretty easy to be honest. He’s a big lad but he can be isolated, and you can target players like that and make them work hard – which he doesn’t like to do.
Italy showed some promise against Ireland with some good attacking play in the second half, but defensively they were so poor. There are certain things in rugby that require no talent at all – line speed is one, and getting up off the floor is another.
If you can do both of those things as a unit you start to have a defensive structure and form a unit that can be difficult to break down. These are really simple things that the Italians just don’t seem to be doing defensively. It’s really hard to defend on your heels and stand back and just let people come on to you. If they can start to do some of these simple things as a unit then maybe they will start to be more competitive in games and have some success.
That said, I think France will have enough to get a win here, by around eight or nine points.
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